talkpolitics | Entries tagged with turkey

This is mostly going to be a link dump, with a few notes. I'm not going to comment much, but just note that the order of these points and the relevant links is deliberate.

You can connect the dots on your own, I'm sure. You're welcome to tell me your version of this picture:

1. Turkey is still far away from the EU values and standards so it cannot join the EU: link

2. If Turkey was an EU member, the war in Ukraine might have been prevented, Turkey argues: link

3. After Russia invaded Ukraine, the US has said it's time for neutral Finland and Sweden to join NATO: link

4. Sweden and Finland want to join NATO now: link

5. Russia responds by vowing to boost its military presence near its borders with Scandinavia: link

6. Sweden allows a far-right activist to burn the Quran in public, citing freedom of speech: link

7. Turkey is enraged by the Quran burning: link

8. Turkey vows to block Sweden's NATO candidacy: link

9. Finland now considers applying for NATO on its own, separately from Sweden: link

10. The US is annoyed by the Quran burning in Sweden, hints that Russia might be at the bottom of all this, possibly a sabotage of the Swedish/Finnish NATO candidacy: link

Your thoughts? Where will this end? Where SHOULD it end? Who's winning and who's losing out of this?

asthfghl

The whole story is actually quite absurd. Turkey and Greece are members of the same defense alliance, NATO, created to defend against a common enemy. Yet the two neighboring countries regularly find themselves on the brink of war - pitted against each other. Exactly how threatened Greece feels can be seen in its defense spending. With expenditures totaling 3.8% of its GDP, Greece actually ranks first among all NATO member states in this respect.

The conflict is of course about territory and thus, resources. Both countries have claims on some islands in the eastern Mediterranean, they're quarrelling about maritime boundaries and related rights to important natural resources such as oil and gas. In 1996, the two countries again came close to all-out war over the small and uninhabited island of Imiya. The conflict then escalated again in 2020. The dispatch of Turkish drilling ships looking for natural gas periodically increases tensions and is perceived by Greece as a provocation.

( Read more... )

abomvubuso

US ambassador: Turkey should not have S-400 to solve the problem

The US ambassador to Turkey, David Satterfield has told Turkey's minister of foreign relations Cavusoglu that if Turkey buys a second set of Russian S-40 missiles, that would cause "a more active approach from the US". Essentially, this means Turkey could find itself in the list of countries subject to sanctions.

Washington has been threatening Turkey in a similar way for quite some time. Turkey's attempts to resolve this issue with the US and their other NATO partners though setting up joint technical compatibility committees have all hit a road-block. Today, Turkey is raising the stakes and saying they'd only quit their S-400 plans if the Americans stop their support for the Kurds. Again, to no avail. Eventually, the diplomacy of bargaining has given way to the diplomacy of symbolic gestures - and not friendly ones, at that. In fact, Turkey now views the S-400 systems not as a bargaining chip any more - they see them as a genuine opportunity for pursuing an independent foreign policy. One that's not necessarily aligned with their NATO allies.

( Read more... )

fridi

Artsakh, that's the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh. Here I'm going to outline just a few main points, from a Turkish and from an Armenian point of view, about the renewed conflict there.

The Turkish standpoint is that Azerbaijan is important in several ways:

1) The TANAP pipeline, very significant for both Turkey itself and South-East Europe.
2) The tendency of a constantly increasing share of the Azeri natural gas in the Turkish energy mix (Azerbaijan even turned out to be Turkey's number one gas supplier earlier this year, even if just for a while).
3) Azerbaijan is an increasingly important user of the Turkish military-industrial complex (and I'm not just talking about their joint military exercises, but also Turkey's desire to build a military base in Naxcivan).
4) Azerbaijan is Turkey's gate to the Turkic-speaking Azeris in Iran and further alongside the Caspian Sea.
5) Azerbaijan is where two geopolitical corridors meet, the Armenia/Iran and Armenia/Russia knot.

( Read more... )

fridi

As it happens, Nagorno-Karabakh is again in flames. On September 27, the armed forces of Armenia and Azerbaijan went full-fist along the borders of the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh. A week later, the clashes grew into all-out war with hundreds of casualties, including civilians.

The Azeris hit Stepanakert, the capital of the contested enclave. The Armenians responded by attacking Ganja, a town within Azerbaijani territory. This has been the biggest escalation of the conflict since the Russian-mediated truce from 1994. The size and scope of the war actions by far exceed those of the so called Four Day War in April 2016.

( Read more... )

luzribeiro

If you think Israel, Iran, Libya, Syria and Lebanon are the only crises going on in the Mediterranean, guess again? The architect of Turkey's Blue Homeland (Aegean & Eastern Med.) Admiral Cem Gurdeniz said that if Greece attacks (to defend its territorial rights), Turkey will leave NATO.

In the meantime France said on Thursday that it was "temporarily reinforcing" its military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean in support of Greece. Tensions between France and Turkey were already high over their support for opposing sides in Libya’s conflict.

The EU’s 27 foreign ministers rallied behind Greece and Cyprus over its territorial dispute with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, and issued a warning that Turkish naval mobilizations were exacerbating an already grave situation.

( Read more... )

nairiporter

Nine years ago, as the mass protests in Syria were gradually entering the bloody stage of the civil war there, hundreds of thousands started fleeing from the violence of their own government. As new rebel groups appeared and the scope of the military operations expanded, their number more than doubled. After 2014, with the emergence of Daesh, their numbers had reached into the millions, and the actions of the jihadists only further exasperated the humanitarian catastrophe.

This brought waves of refugees upon the European borders in 2015 and 2016, and the resulting rise of right-wing reactionary factions, some of them managing to make political inroads in their countries, and even winning elections on the promise they would protect their people from "terrorists disguised as refugees". Doubtless, the Syrian civil war is the heaviest conflict of our time, and the resulting refugee and humanitarian crisis caused by all the violence and destruction are one of the most serious challenges to the international community. Although the focus somehow mostly falls on the refugees heading to Europe, the bulk of the masses fleeing from war-torn Syria actually went to neighbouring countries: Jordan, Lebanon, and Turkey.

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fridi

"An assault on Turkey!"; "Dark forces are attacking the Turkish Lira!" Those are the headlines you could see around the government-friendly newspapers in Turkey these days. The reason, the Turkish currency has hit rock-bottom. Now a US dollar is traded for more than 7 Lira, something unseen in decades. The Lira has lost nearly 1/5 of its value since January, and that's very worrying.

Thus, Turkey's been heading toward a second recession within a couple of years. The previous one was in August 2018, caused by the row with the US caused by the detention of a controversial US pastor by Turkey. But now the reasons are far more complex. The main one, a mountain of debt. This year Turkey will have to cover public and private debt worth 170 billion dollars. This time the experts don't see a way out. The overall opinion is that Erdogan's government won't be able to cope.

USD vs TL

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fridi

The exchange of deadly fire between the Turkish forces and Russia-backed Assad military in the Idlib province in Syria has drastically increased the tension in the region for the last fortnight or so. The situation looks set for an escalation into a uncontrolled spiral of violence, now that the urgent talks in Moscow have failed to deliver a significant result. The Turkish military, sent to secure the agreed safety zone in North Syria, has been met with an assault by the Assad forces for the last half a month, suffering at least a dozen casualties. And of course Erdogan is not going to let this slide, lest he appears weak and incompetent.

"The operation in Idlib is imminent", he directly said last week during a meeting with his party MPs. He also said the Turkish military was getting prepared, and the countdown was on. Last warnings were being issued; if Assad's military and the paramilitary groups that he supports do not back down and leave the Turkish positions by the end of the month, Erdogan will order a massive attack.

( Read more... )

fridi

The latest escalation in Syria puts some important questions. Idlib is again a bloody battlefield, and this time Turkey is heavily involved, funding the Syrian rebels very generously, while Russia is firmly behind Assad. And we thought these two regional powers were supposed to be friends now?

While Putin's buddy Assad is pressing hard on Idlib, Erdogan has sent dozens of trucks and other vehicles to the nearby keypoint of Saraqib. Turkey already has 12 outposts around Idlib, but had remained mostly passive while Assad's forces were advancing north. All Erdogan did was rant that Russia wasn't honoring their agreement to avoid escalation. But earlier this week the inevitable happened, and Assad's forces reached the Turkish positions, and opened fire. A few Turkish troops were dead and injured, then the Turks returned fire.

( Read more... )

fridi

Turkey will be supporting the Libyan government of Fayez as-Sarraj in his war with Gan. Khalifa Haftar. The latter's so called Libyan National Army is trying to conquer Tripoli, and controls vast regions in Eastern Libya.

As we all know, Turkey is an emerging regional power in the Middle East that is currently in economic crisis. Some might ask themselves, what's Turkey doing in Africa, especially after it already got involved in neibhboring Syria. Isn't a second military adventure, now far from home, a bit risky? Well, if you ask Erdogan, he'll tell you he's aiming to defend the lawfully elected Libyan government from those pesky warlords. He's also saying he's acting on Sarraj's invitation, who indeed did sign a military cooperation agreement with his neo-Ottoman counterpart last November. But it's clear that there's more to this story, and the game is much bigger for Erdogan.

( Read more... )

asthfghl

The Turkish surveillance drones are hovering over North Cyprus to watch the Israelis. The Israeli airforce is menacingly circling over the drilling ships sent from Turkey. A Turkish ship armed to the teeth drove away an Israeli exploration vessel. A new conflict is brewing in the neutral waters of the Eastern Mediterranean, and the gas resources there are at the core of it all.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-50806877

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mahnmut

Despite 'wonderful' meeting, Trump and Erdogan fail to resolve conflicts

Trump showed he doesn’t understand Turkey — while standing next to Turkey’s president

Wait, wasn't Donnie supposed to be a great diplomat, a master of eye-to-eye contact, a great deal broker? Then why isn't Recep the fussy boy responding to his love? But, but, Donnie said he's a "great fan" of Recep! I thought it was all supposed to be birds and roses after they meet?

Sure there was an exchange of niceties, but no real results. The two lovebirds spent more than an hour behind closed doors "discussing important topics", and Donnie promised he still considers Turkey a key US partner. But Recep wasn't particularly enthusiastic, what with all those sanctions, warnings against buying Russian weapons, and that infamous letter where Donnie essentially said "don't touch the Kurds, or else". Recep just kept a blank face, and reiterated his previous demands about getting back Gullen, etc. Donnie didn't say anything.

Recep then told Donnie his invasion of Syria should've happened way earlier, which would've prevented thousands of deaths. Whose deaths, you might wonder? Jihadist ones, perhaps. Oh, by the way Recep isn't quitting the Russian missile defense anytime soon, you can be sure of that. He won't get out of Syria, either. So, Donnie, sorry, but you're a shit of a deal-broker.

And these guys are supposed to be running this planet. Hate to say it, but seems like Vlad looks like the voice of reason compared to them. We're fucked. Duh.

fridi

A few days after the joint Russian-Turkish military patrols started operating in Northern Syria, the situation in the area remains unstable, despite the bilateral agreement between Erdogan and Putin that was signed in Sochi.

Turkey is preparing to send 3.6 refugees back to Syria, and populate the so called safety zone with at least 1 million of them. Sure, Erdogan insists they'd only be sent back voluntarily, but I guess we know that won't be entirely true.

( Read more... )

asthfghl

Trump thinks withdrawing America from Syria would make America great again, so he leaves the Kurds at Erdogan's mercy. And as we know, Erdogan has no mercy. Erdogan duly steps in to fill the vacuum. Trump threatens to "destroy Turkey's economy" if "Erdogan does anything bad (!?) to the Kurds". Well, if you didn't want anything bad to happen to the Kurds, you wouldn't have left them alone now, would you?

Then, France and Britain withdraw their ships from Cyprus. Everyone knows there's oil and gas around Cyprus, and Erdogan wants that oil and gas. Erdogan duly steps in, as Cyprus has been left at Erdogan's mercy. And as we know, Erdogan has no mercy.

( There is more. Much, much more. )

abomvubuso

Turkey makes deal to buy Russian-made S-400 air defense system

We've talked about this before. Turkey wants to buy Russian missile systems, and predictably, America ain't happy about it. The deal could bring Turkey a new batch of US sanctions, and, if not a NATO exit, at least an effective limiting of its membership in the alliance. Now Erdogan stands before a choice he doesn't want to make. And the biggest winner of this row is, of course, Russia.

"No one should expect of us to swallow back what we've already spat out", Erdogan, in his typical style, recently said about the purchase. It's a done deal, essentially. And there's no way Turkey could reverse their decision, regardless of all the US and NATO invective.

( Read more... )

asthfghl

Turkish democracy is the winner in these momentous local elections
By toppling the AKP in Ankara and Istanbul, the opposition has shown that Erdogan’s ruling party is not an invincible force

The result of these local elections in Turkey is mostly being interpreted as a "setback" and "defeat" for the ruling JDP, and some have gone even further and called it a referendum on Erdogan. But probably the most remarkable thing is that for the first time in 25 years, the conservative party loses Ankara to the Kemalist social-democratic republicans. The rulers seem to have lost the vote in the Istanbul megapolis by a narrow 20K margin. Erdogan's party, of course, is challenging the result there, because Istanbul is really the most important city, and not just because it's the country's hub, but for sentimental reasons: it's where Erdogan started his political career. Just like St.Petersburg is important for Putin.

( Read more... )

asthfghl

Many of Trump's supporters, as well as opponents to US interventionism in general who don't pay attention to details would gladly welcome his decision for the Syrian withdrawal as a promise kept, and probably even a step towards peace. But that's the last thing that it is. Now that large parts of Syria have finally been freed of the barbaric rule of the Islamist extremists and have slowly started to return to normalcy, it seems all that horror is about to return, this time the Jihadist hordes ravaging the whole area with Turkey's blessing. NATO's Turkey, if I may add. The world is about to stay a silent witness to another bloodbath that, on top of all, will likely destroy a unique political project in Rojava. It may not be perfect, but it does try to establish values such as democracy, the supremacy of law, and civil liberties in a much more authentic way than many countries claiming to espouse them.

The moment and the circumstances in which Trump announced his decision also cast some doubt on the claim that he's merely fulfilling a campaign promise that he made a couple of years ago. Since he's been in power, the US has actually spent record budgets on "defense", and the US drones, bombings, and spec ops have murdered more civilians than before, which is a remarkable achievement, given the high "standard" that his two predecessors had set. The "awesome young people" in the US military won't really be coming back home - they'll be sent to some of the dozens of US bases in other parts of the world, including places like Africa and Asia.

( Read more... )

asthfghl

Now a bit more about the major players in Syria, and the implications of the US withdrawal (as we already learned, it's a withdrawal from a half-assed presence, but anyway; some still appear to think it's significant).

Russia and Iran will undoubtedly be happy. For now, the Russian reactions don't detour from the standard. Putin just pointed out the decision was "good", noting that the US presence in Syria was illegal, but also saying he had doubts if they'd get out completely. The speaker of the Russian ministry of the exterior said that the withdrawal could create "a real perspective for a political solution" (all the while, Russia omitting to characterize the Turkish presence in Syria as illegal, or "occupation", which is quite telling about the ongoing trade of influence and territories between the two buddies.

( Read more... )

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June 2025

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Summary

mahnmut - Let's connect the dots here +3 comments
asthfghl - How Turkey became indispensable
abomvubuso - The Middle East axis +2 comments
fridi - Artsakh, another square of the chessboard +1 comment
fridi - Nagorno-Karabakh is more about Russia and Turkey +2 comments
luzribeiro - Not another Mediterranean conflict? +1 comment
nairiporter - What happened with the Syrian refugees? #1 The situation in Turkey +5 comments
fridi - Turkey's in trouble. Again. +1 comment
fridi - Who'll blink first +4 comments
fridi - Romance is over +2 comments
fridi - What's Erdogan's game in Libya?
asthfghl - Rumble in the Mediterranean +4 comments
mahnmut - Even Twilight is a better love story than this +6 comments
fridi - The Syrian buffer zone +2 comments
asthfghl - Here's what happens when you abandon your friends. +23 comments
abomvubuso - Arms of discord +6 comments
asthfghl - A few lessons from Turkey'19 +1 comment
asthfghl - Enter the Ottomans: False Hope +100 comments
asthfghl - Enter the Ottomans: Wish Against Reality +2 comments

Talk politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods.

Entries tagged with turkey

Let's connect the dots here

How Turkey became indispensable

The Middle East axis

Artsakh, another square of the chessboard

Nagorno-Karabakh is more about Russia and Turkey

Not another Mediterranean conflict?

What happened with the Syrian refugees? #1 The situation in Turkey

Turkey's in trouble. Again.

Who'll blink first

Romance is over

What's Erdogan's game in Libya?

Rumble in the Mediterranean

Even Twilight is a better love story than this

The Syrian buffer zone

Here's what happens when you abandon your friends.

Arms of discord

A few lessons from Turkey'19

Enter the Ottomans: False Hope

Enter the Ottomans: Wish Against Reality

Credits & Style Info

Links

June 2025

Summary