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talkpoliticsIf you think Israel, Iran, Libya, Syria and Lebanon are the only crises going on in the Mediterranean, guess again? The architect of Turkey's Blue Homeland (Aegean & Eastern Med.) Admiral Cem Gurdeniz said that if Greece attacks (to defend its territorial rights), Turkey will leave NATO.
In the meantime France said on Thursday that it was "temporarily reinforcing" its military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean in support of Greece. Tensions between France and Turkey were already high over their support for opposing sides in Libya’s conflict.
The EU’s 27 foreign ministers rallied behind Greece and Cyprus over its territorial dispute with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, and issued a warning that Turkish naval mobilizations were exacerbating an already grave situation.
Here are Turkey's words of wisdom:
...Turkey on Sunday blasted a defense agreement between France and Cyprus as “unacceptable”.
...Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay on Sunday called France's stance in the Eastern Mediterranean “spoiled and aggressive.’’
...They (France) will not get anywhere by acting like bullies, whether in Libya, the northeast of Syria, in Iraq or the Mediterranean."
"...Oktay called on international circles, starting with the EU, to take action against France..."
“...“We will never bow to banditry on our continental shelf. We will not back down against the language of sanctions and threats,” Erdogan said in a speech to members of the ruling party in the city of Rizuda. On Friday on the same wavelength, he warned that "if Greece continues to attack Oruc Reis in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey will retaliate."
"...Cavusoglu insisted that Turkey was looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis and was only expecting "common sense" from Greece..."
"... Turkey says Greece is using its control of a few tiny islands off the coast of Turkey to claim an outsized share of the Mediterranean Sea..."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...reece-slams-bully-france-200814140628522.html
https://www.thenational.ae/world/eu...lict-over-mediterranean-sea-mission-1.1064122
Okay, so what goes between Greece and Turkey? The Greek islands together with Cyprus cover almost all of the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey believes those lands and seas were taken away from them unfairly at the end of WWI. To them everything belongs to their former empire, and it doesn't matter if the people living there aren't Turks. They have no problem kicking them off as they have shown with the Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians and more recently with the Kurds.
In 1923 Ataturk was fearful that the Treaty of Sevres might be signed, and it divided Anatolia among its Greek, Armenian and Assyrian inhabitants, so he signed the Treaty of Lausanne. That treaty gave Turkey the Greek cities and towns on the mainland, and Greece took the islands and the waters surrounding them.
Today the Greek waters in the Eastern Med., together with the Cypriot waters gives them the opportunity to pass a gas pipeline from Israel to Europe, as well as search for oil and gas in the mineral rich waters.
In the map below, the tan lines are the delineation zones of the countries involved. The blue lines show the claims of Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood Pres. Saraj of Libya. Notice how they completely ignore the Greek island of Crete and cut right through it, as well as the island of Rhodes and some smaller islands.
In order to undo Turkey's grab of the Greek waters, the Greek PM signed a separate Treaty with Egypt - which you can see with the red lines. It undercuts Turkey's theft so Turkey is furious.
Now Erdogan is goaded by the nationalists to be more aggressive, and if something happens to him, there will definitely be a war with Greece. The Greek people will not give up their sovereignty, even though there is a lot of psychological warfare coming from Turkey. The Turks talk of 'liberating' the Greek islands, and even have maps showing the populated and prosperous islands of Rhodes, Lesvos, Chios, and Samos as being part of Turkey.
Now, while I do think there's no actual war coming up any time soon, and all of this is being done in order to get concessions and acquire a more beneficial geopolitical starting position, I can't help but speculate, at least hypothetically. I get a feeling if Turkey attacks Greece, the war itself wouldn't last long. While I don't see many major powers siding on the Turkish side (even if the Greeks attack first), on the other hand I don't see many major powers getting involved militarily in a continuation of the Greece-Turkey spat, either.
Really any by-the-numbers military comparison favors Turkey rather heavily. See this one for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mta03-BAqvg
Still, the Greeks have never been ones to be conquered easily, whether they faced Persians, Ottomans, or Nazis. They always put up a hell of a fight. Their economy might be sucking, but the people have a strong sense of cultural identity.
But of course it won't come to all that. Or won't it?
In the meantime France said on Thursday that it was "temporarily reinforcing" its military presence in the Eastern Mediterranean in support of Greece. Tensions between France and Turkey were already high over their support for opposing sides in Libya’s conflict.
The EU’s 27 foreign ministers rallied behind Greece and Cyprus over its territorial dispute with Turkey in the Eastern Mediterranean, and issued a warning that Turkish naval mobilizations were exacerbating an already grave situation.
Here are Turkey's words of wisdom:
...Turkey on Sunday blasted a defense agreement between France and Cyprus as “unacceptable”.
...Turkish Vice President Fuat Oktay on Sunday called France's stance in the Eastern Mediterranean “spoiled and aggressive.’’
...They (France) will not get anywhere by acting like bullies, whether in Libya, the northeast of Syria, in Iraq or the Mediterranean."
"...Oktay called on international circles, starting with the EU, to take action against France..."
“...“We will never bow to banditry on our continental shelf. We will not back down against the language of sanctions and threats,” Erdogan said in a speech to members of the ruling party in the city of Rizuda. On Friday on the same wavelength, he warned that "if Greece continues to attack Oruc Reis in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey will retaliate."
"...Cavusoglu insisted that Turkey was looking for a peaceful solution to the crisis and was only expecting "common sense" from Greece..."
"... Turkey says Greece is using its control of a few tiny islands off the coast of Turkey to claim an outsized share of the Mediterranean Sea..."
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020...reece-slams-bully-france-200814140628522.html
https://www.thenational.ae/world/eu...lict-over-mediterranean-sea-mission-1.1064122
Okay, so what goes between Greece and Turkey? The Greek islands together with Cyprus cover almost all of the Eastern Mediterranean. Turkey believes those lands and seas were taken away from them unfairly at the end of WWI. To them everything belongs to their former empire, and it doesn't matter if the people living there aren't Turks. They have no problem kicking them off as they have shown with the Armenians, Greeks, Assyrians and more recently with the Kurds.
In 1923 Ataturk was fearful that the Treaty of Sevres might be signed, and it divided Anatolia among its Greek, Armenian and Assyrian inhabitants, so he signed the Treaty of Lausanne. That treaty gave Turkey the Greek cities and towns on the mainland, and Greece took the islands and the waters surrounding them.
Today the Greek waters in the Eastern Med., together with the Cypriot waters gives them the opportunity to pass a gas pipeline from Israel to Europe, as well as search for oil and gas in the mineral rich waters.
In the map below, the tan lines are the delineation zones of the countries involved. The blue lines show the claims of Erdogan and the Muslim Brotherhood Pres. Saraj of Libya. Notice how they completely ignore the Greek island of Crete and cut right through it, as well as the island of Rhodes and some smaller islands.
In order to undo Turkey's grab of the Greek waters, the Greek PM signed a separate Treaty with Egypt - which you can see with the red lines. It undercuts Turkey's theft so Turkey is furious.
Now Erdogan is goaded by the nationalists to be more aggressive, and if something happens to him, there will definitely be a war with Greece. The Greek people will not give up their sovereignty, even though there is a lot of psychological warfare coming from Turkey. The Turks talk of 'liberating' the Greek islands, and even have maps showing the populated and prosperous islands of Rhodes, Lesvos, Chios, and Samos as being part of Turkey.
Now, while I do think there's no actual war coming up any time soon, and all of this is being done in order to get concessions and acquire a more beneficial geopolitical starting position, I can't help but speculate, at least hypothetically. I get a feeling if Turkey attacks Greece, the war itself wouldn't last long. While I don't see many major powers siding on the Turkish side (even if the Greeks attack first), on the other hand I don't see many major powers getting involved militarily in a continuation of the Greece-Turkey spat, either.
Really any by-the-numbers military comparison favors Turkey rather heavily. See this one for example:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mta03-BAqvg
Still, the Greeks have never been ones to be conquered easily, whether they faced Persians, Ottomans, or Nazis. They always put up a hell of a fight. Their economy might be sucking, but the people have a strong sense of cultural identity.
But of course it won't come to all that. Or won't it?
A theory for now
Date: 26/8/20 20:14 (UTC)Putin might provide - IE sell - some firepower to Turkey and have his internet troll farms play more mind games here and there, but I don't see him sending troops, planes and ships to back that up. Not soon. He's still trying to keep his meddling with NATO unity low-key because of the financials at his end of things. Also, if Belarus goes pear-shaped on Putin and Lukashenko, he's going to need the actual armed forces a lot closer to home.
Of course, I could end up being proven wrong by "Events, dear boy...events."