Talk politics.

A few days after the joint Russian-Turkish military patrols started operating in Northern Syria, the situation in the area remains unstable, despite the bilateral agreement between Erdogan and Putin that was signed in Sochi.

Turkey is preparing to send 3.6 refugees back to Syria, and populate the so called safety zone with at least 1 million of them. Sure, Erdogan insists they'd only be sent back voluntarily, but I guess we know that won't be entirely true.

Amnesty International reports that Turkey has already been forcing Syrian refugees to leave the country. While Erdogan has often threatened Europe with "unleashing" them west in case he doesn't get what he wants, but in all likelihood the bulk of that crowd will still be sent back to the Middle East.

https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2019/10/turkey-syrians-illegally-deported-into-war-ahead-of-anticipated-safe-zone/

Of course in the long run, the best scenario is to provide incentive and create prospects for Syrian refugees to return home. This requires a lot of work on the ground, and a lasting peace in the region. Forcefully pushing people back into war zones is never a good option. And neither is unilateral violation of international law and human rights. Erdogan may be using the refugees as a tool to blackmail Europe into sending him more money, but pouring cash onto a black hole of this sort while lacking any assurances of getting a positive result is utterly counter-productive.

As for the safety zone, it's 120 km long and 32 km wide, i.e. a lot smaller than initially intended (Erdogan first wanted a 444 km long area). This could either mean the number of refugees he'll settle there would be smaller than planned, or they'd be crammed together more tightly. Probably the former.

The Turkish ministry of the exterior reports that nearly 0.3M Syrian refugees have returned to Afrin after Erdogan's military operation, but it's also very likely that many of those people have then re-entered Turkey through illegal channels because they couldn't find what they were hoping for, so now they're living in Turkey as illegal migrants.

It stands to reason that in the current circumstances, if returning to Syria was entirely voluntary as Erdogan claims, the number of people returning would not be very big. Out of 3.6 Syrians currently living in Turkey, only a tiny part comes from the eastern regions along the Euphrates. So if we're to expect voluntary returns, there won't be much more than half a million who'd decide to go back to Syria.

Things are still too unclear. What's clear is, once the war is over and things have settled one way or another, the Syrians would have to return to their homes. One way or another.

Turkey has skillfully used the Syrian refugees as a tool, like I said. They've been entering since 2012, and for a time they've driven Turkey's economy and helped it grow (you know, cheap labor, a dynamic labor market, etc). But in recent years the economic situation in Turkey has deteriorated, and of course the first and most convenient target of the public's wrath are the foreigners. Today, Turkey has stopped being a welcoming place for Syrians.

Erdogan wants to win back the waning public support by finding a solution to the refugee problem. So he often uses them to threaten the EU and for other propaganda reasons. He has often suggested he'd "open the gates wide" for a refugee influx into Europe, causing concern in many EU countries about a possible second migrant wave. This of course plays right into the hands of various fringe ideologies, and has largely contributed to the rise of the right-wing across Europe (even to the Brexit hysteria).

We've already mentioned Macron and his firm approach to migration, whether it be as an attempt to win some of the more right-wing voters back home to his side, or as an attempt to set a new model of handling these matters within the EU. As for Germany, which is now gradually giving up its leading position in the union as Merkel's era is fast coming to an end, finding a long-term solution for Syria has long been a top priority. Although the proposal of the new German minister of defense for an international safety zone failed to get the needed support in th EU, the ruling party is evidently still considering initiating an international commitment to Northern Syria. So the subject will still be high on the agenda of the EU and NATO. There's an upcoming NATO summit in London later this year, so I guess we'll have to wait and see how they'll address this. There's long been a proposal for a united European border defense force with much wider prerogatives than Frontex, which would provide a stronger and more flexible control of the outer EU borders, so Europe woulnd't have to be intimidated and blackmailed every time Erdogan decides he's having a bad day or something.

Given the recent military clashes between Turkey and Assad's forces in Northern Syria, and the new deal in Sochi between Russia and Turkey, I guess the most important thing now is to closely watch how the Russian-Turkish cooperation will unfold on the ground, and whether it'll really lead to stabilization of the region - but you'll forgive me if I don't intend holding my breath too much about this.