talkpolitics | Entries tagged with diplomacy

Trump Should Stop Before He Loses Germany
Punitive tariffs on German cars would be a hostile act – and could well force a recession.

If president Trump acts on the likely conclusion of a report by Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross - that German car imports are a threat to national security - he could bring the US-German relationship to a post-World War II nadir. Presumably, for Trump, that would be less of a security threat than Mercedes-Benzes and BMWs.The content of the report hasn’t yet been made public. But Trump has previously threatened to impose a 25 percent tariff on foreign-made cars, and Ross’s report may offer him a justification.

A bit older of an article, but it raises the question; if a country that pays twice what we pay in salary and benefits, builds twice the number of cars, and has full health care for all, is a threat to us, then maybe YOU are the ones doing something wrong.

How Germany Builds Twice As Many Cars As The U.S. While Paying Its Workers Twice As Much

abomvubuso

There was a time when the US used to send its top diplomats to do tours around Central and East Europe almost every month. Once Poland, Hungary and the rest of those post-Soviet-bloc countries joined NATO and the EU, the US kind of adopted a "mission accomplished" approach, and turned its focus to Asia.

Now through Mike Pompeo's tour in Hungary, Slovakia and Poland, the US is giving signs of a return to the region. The official intention is to fill the vacuum that remained after America's withdrawal and allowed Russia and China to step in. Pompeo's main messages were about the dangers of Russian gas and Chinese technology, especially in countries with questionable reputation, corruption-wise (seen as a vessel for creeping Russian and Chinese influence), and the long-term repercussions of the erosion of the rule of law. The US diplomatic surge on EU's eastern flank comes at a time when the US and EU are closer than ever to an agreement for new sanctions against Russia because of that incident with the detained Ukrainian ships in the Sea of Azov.

( Read more... )

luzribeiro

"Macron rebukes nationalism in Armistice speech calling it "a betrayal of patriotism"" (Watch on YouTube)

Macron warned against nationalism (again) in an obvious rebuke of Trump at the WW1 commemoration, which was beautiful to behold. He basically shoved it in the face of the Orange Head - you know the one who used to say others were "low energy", and is now postponing his participation in parades and commemorations because of, well, rain. Or something.

However, let's not fool ourselves. Nationalism is here to stay. And for quite a while. And, while we're about Macron bashing nationalism - banning the burqa; nationalism or patriotism? Eh? Sorry for my whataboutism. ;-)

johnny9fingers

Nice to know the folk we ally ourselves with have such great ways of doing things:

www.theguardian.com/world/2018/oct/06/saudi-journalist-killed-inside-consulate-turkish-sources

If this is true this is as bad as, if not worse than, the Skripal poisoning. Technically the murder would have been done on Saudi territory, but in actuality it was done on Saudi diplomatic territory within another sovereign nation.

And of course it was done in Turkey, and the rest of us don't tend to side with Turkey ATM because of various leadership and policy issues, mainly concerning Syria and Russia.

However, I would contend that we all need to show solidarity with Turkey here. Murdering folk who criticise you after you have given them guarantees of safety isn't a very nice thing to do. Using diplomatic privilege and diplomatic or consular property to carry out your murder puts the whole set of diplomatic prerogatives into question.

I think Turkey has to expel Saudi diplomats, and the rest of the world has to investigate too. Just as with Russia's clandestine murderous policy, this sort of behaviour is unacceptable and must be challenged by the rest of us. As many of the rest of us as we can get to join the protests at such behaviour.

Never going to happen. Saudi buys too much "stuff" from us. Which then falls into the hands of Al Qaeda, obvs. And if Saudi murders a few journalists abroad, as long as it's not in Blighty, then...

If we expect other folk to join us in condemning Russian abuses on our territory, surely we should be in solidarity complaining about Saudi abuses in a neighbour's territory.

What would the panel do? Complain, boycott, or ignore?

mahnmut

He kept saying the world was laughing at America; now it's literally laughing. At him. But so what?

The world may be laughing at Trump's shenanigans, but the truth of the matter is, they're impotent to do anything as Trumpism keeps spreading around the globe. Europe has seen its share of Trump-style populist xenophobia taking over one country after another; Trump is flexing muscle in trade and diplomacy, and smaller countries are caving in; and Putin is rubbing his hands in delight as the Idiot-In-Chief sitting in the White House ordering diet Coke is tweeting while squatting on the toilet - and handing him the upper hand in geopolitical corners of importance all over the place.

So yeah, he's amusing and he's clownish, and no one really takes him seriously - or at least they pretend not to. Others (like Erdogan) may be outright angry at him, and so they choose to gnash their teeth at him, lash out in public speeches designed for their own domestic audience, and walk out of the room demonstratively - but so what? America is powerful enough to do as she pleases (still). Europe cannot defend itself on its own - not at this point. So they'll have to cave in to Trump's demands for more defense expenses ("We're your liberator and protector, yo"). China is not as powerful as she thinks she is, so there'll be a deal there too. Iran is struggling, and so will the companies who want to keep doing business with it (that sanction-bypassing new fund notwithstanding). So they'll cave in too. North Korea is already caving.

So yeah. Keep laughing. But as stupid and idiotic as he may be looking and behaving, and as opportunistic as he may be in using the upside trend of global economy (the US one in particular) to boast about "achievements" and boost his ego (and the political chances of his cronies in Congress, by extension), he's going to keep having the upper hand.

Expect Trump re-election in '20. And four more years of the same. The world won't be the same after that, I guarantee you this. Then we'll see who will remain laughing.

fridi

"If America turns her back on us, choosing some pastor instead, I'm sorry, but we'll have to go our own path with resolute steps. This attitude to a strategic partner is upsetting", Turkish president Erdogan recently commented about Trump's punitive tariffs, and then vowed he'd steer his country towards new allies, and away from America.

The tension has escalated exponentially, which led to economic woes to Turkey: a drastic devaluation of the national currency, skyrocketing inflation, tariffs on exports to the US. The two sides are on a direct collision course on an array of issues: from the case with Gulen, and the US pastor who was arrested and charged with terrorism, to the competing interests in Syria, to the Turkish plans to buy Russian defense systems.

( Read more... )

mahnmut

Gawd. Anything he touches turns into... ehm, chars?

Trump Torches Hosts on First Day of Visit to U.K.
On his first day in Britain, the president launched a stunning attack on Prime Minister Theresa May and backed her nemesis, Boris Johnson, for the job.

His visit to the special ally hasn't even begun yet, and he has managed to shit all over the place. First he gave an interview for a yellow rug, spewing slurs left and right, reiterating how bad the London mayor is (but of course, he's Pakistani, so he must support terrorism, right?), belittling the prime minister, and potentially provoking further divisions by actively advertising her main rival because he's more hardline than her about the EU.

Of course, Trump's tactic is divide and rule - and if the UK government is not playing by his tune and wants to maintain somewhat closer relations to the EU than he might have liked, he'd do exactly what it takes to stop that, and promote the more anti-EU elements in the UK (Boris Johnson in this case). It's all being done in America's interests, not anyone else's. If the hard Brexiters take the upper hand, the UK will be further isolated from Europe, and that'll leave it no other option but to be America's obedient puppy. Making America great again, you know.

I won't even begin wasting my time about the umpteenth time Trump has been caught in a lie, the pseudo-story about how he predicted the Brexit one day after it had already happened. Duh.

Small talk around the UK/US lunch table is certainly going to be awkward...

luzribeiro

First Im'ma just throw this in, to get things going a bit:

Key US allies 'perplexed' as Trump treats friends like enemies

"President Donald Trump's decision to cancel his historic meeting with North Korea's Kim Jong Un left South Korea's President "perplexed" and sparked angry protests in Seoul. One sign read: "We condemn Trump. Welcome to life these days as a close US ally."

Then we proceed with this:

Trump Furious After Nobel Committee Gives Him Participation Trophy

Sorry Don, no Nobel for ya. Thanks Obama!

( Then we get more serious )

fridi

* "Money doesn't smell".

That's the essence of the question why Britain is only half-assedly (sic?) imposing sanctions to Russia. Why don't they crack down heavily on Russian assets in the UK if they're really so upset with Putin? As usual, the answer is pretty cynical...

UK is infused with Russian money, making a crackdown hard

There are about 20,000 Russian millionaires and billionaires currently residing in Britain. Most of them oligarchs. Most of the money is stolen from Russia. If Britain was really, but REALLY about honesty, it would've cracked down on those Russians. THAT would've hurt Putin in a real way, not loading a few dozen diplomats on buses and sending them on a flight back home. That's just cheap circus, under the pretense of "proportional reciprocity".

In reality, the bulk of all that Russian wealth is being poured into the British economy via British banks and investment funds, which help sustain the British market (mostly the real estate one, and the luxury items market). As you might have surmised by now, none of that money ever makes it to the ordinary Briton. The British people don't directly benefit from it.

( There is more )

asthfghl

Russian Patriarch Kirill’s visit to Bulgaria for Liberation Day hit by controversies

"Borissov, however, made Kirill a bit grumpy [by] mentioning that not only Russians had taken part in the decisive battles. Romanians and those from Finland were among those Borissov mentioned. This departure from the narrative made, as Kirill reportedly told reporters as he reached Sofia Airport, well, yes, a bit “grumpy”."

"Grumpy" is a bit of an understatement if you ask me. The Russian Orthodox Patriarch has launched an angry rant against the government officials of a sovereign country for having mentioned other nationalities beside Russian in their official statements of gratitude for the liberation of my country 140 years ago. Sure, the Russian army carried the bulk of that war, but there were others involved as well (dragged into the war because their countries were subordinate to the Russian Empire at the time) - and now the official Kremlin envoy (because that's exactly what the Patriarch is) has expressed his envy and dissatisfaction with the fact that Finns, Romanians, Ukrainians, Moldovans and others are being "put on equal footing" with Russians.

Russians have to be above and ahead of everybody else, is the conclusion. Otherwise nothing would work in these attempts for friendly bilateral relations, no matter how hard we try.

( So here is my modest contribution to the art of diplomacy )

asthfghl

What to expect from Bulgaria's EU presidency?

We haven't talked this much about the Balkans since the 90s. And suddenly - voila! We're a regional leader! Wohow. Even Frau Merkel patted us on the shoulder (literally). Except, there must be some hidden misunderstanding in here somewhere: the EU expects us to build bridges to Turkey (figuratively), because the big topic is definitely Turkey: it's expected to keep migration in check, be a bridge to the Islamic world, and not go into Putin's camp. But in the meantime, most EU countries believe accepting Turkey into their family is no longer on the table, because the negotiations have been frozen after Erdogan's turn to dictatorship. Still, they want to offer Turkey some kind of privileged partnership status, similar to what the UK might get after the Brexit. However, Erdogan has clearly said he wouldn't accept anything less than EU membership, and he'll hardly change this position after the November election, because he doesn't want to be the guy who got his country kicked out of its EU path after so many decades of humiliating limbo.

The worst part in all this is that the two sides have been exchanging a ceaseless barrage of aggressive rhetoric. Let me just remind of the satirical verses of some German poet against Erdogan, including hints about goats and such stuff, or Erdogan's accusation of the Western leaders that they were fascists. He presented this as a brave victory over political correctness, but I'd say it was rather a defeat of diplomatic common sense. It has made sure that European and Turkish leaders are no longer willing to meet and talk to each other. An idiotic development, I know, but there it is.

( Read more... )

abomvubuso

In 2014, the liberal Zionist organisation J Street conducted a survey among the Jewish community in the US about their opinion on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. The results showed that 80% of the US Jews support the Two-State scenario, 72% believe East Jerusalem should be the capital of an independent Palestinian state, alongside a sovereign Israel.

Similar results have come from a survey by the conservative Zionist AJC, showing that only 16% support the relocation of the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, 44% categorically reject such a decision, and 36% believe it could be possibly but only at a later stage, when Israelis and Palestinians have settled in peace with each other.

( Read more... )

fridi

For those who still wonder why Trump has taken the shocking decision to recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, despite overwhelming opposition from almost anywhere in the world (Britain, France, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, the Palestinians, the UN, the Pope, etc), do bear in mind what his strategy has been since day one of the election campaign.

He thrives on division. Being a radical, he needs to ignite his radical base, evangelicals in this case. They expect the fulfillment of the prophesy that the Messiah will sit on the throne of David in Jerusalem, and this can happen only if Jerusalem is controlled by Israel. Pence's presence during Trump's speech was no coincidence, he stood solemn but prominent in the background, as if to tacitly state who's backing the decision. And it's no coincidence that Trump has repeatedly invoked "Judeo-Christian" when referring to the United States. It's been a consistent theme for him, even if he's not necessarily a Christian fundie.

Trump is not only expecting the chaos that his decision will create, he's actually inviting it. Divide and rule. He's betting on white Christian Americans being pitted against everyone else, and in this context, this move regarding Jerusalem is logical. Religious conflicts, like racial and ethnic ones, are critical to his appeal.

That, and the inevitable distraction that this act is going to provide away from hiw increasing woes back home.

He needs conflict, so that his radical supporters can be kept active. He knows the reaction, particularly in the Middle East, will be swift and violent. But that's exactly what he wants. He needs Mexian Americans to rape and murder white girls. He needs African American athletes to "disrespect the flag". He needs Muslims to explode bombs and burn American flags. The more threatening non-white, non-Christians appear, the more his supporters would rely on him to keep the barbarians at bay. If he has to invent these dangers, he will. And just like in this, case he'll even help create them.

fridi

While most media in the Land of the Free were mostly occupied with the umpteenth Tweet-storm between the Douche-in-Chief and the father of the basketball player who had been released from Chinese jail after a request from the former (which he now says he regretted), Putin sat in his villa in Sochi with some high dignitaries, and he was busy revising the geopolitical fate of the Middle East. Savor the discrepancy of scale.

First, Bashar Assad surprisingly showed up to personally thank Putin for Russia's immense help in keeping his head on his shoulders, and to promise he'd cooperate with Russia's effort to solve the Syrian issue - knowing that his removal from power was no longer among the key conditions for the furthering of that process. Then Putin called Saudi king Salman to inform him of the negotiations and get assurances from him that the Saudis would allow some staff changes in the Syrian opposition, aiming to remove the most vocal opponents to a potential truce with Assad. Finally, the presidents of Iran and Turkey also arrived for the trilateral talks with their Russian host, and they discussed the transition period in Syria. Later, Putin called Trump to inform him of all the proceedings, but his tone left no ambiguity about the fact that Russia was informing the US out of mere courtesy, not seeking any advice, feedback, or least of all, a green light for their actions. And definitely no US involvement in the talks about Syria's future.

Trump wanted America for Americans, and he got it. America is left on its own, and out of important geopolitical processes. It's but a mere spectator now. That's where self-isolationism gets you.

( Read more... )

halialkers

The most dangerous one that Trump is perpetrating worldwide is the deliberate decay of the US State Department. Diplomacy in superpower terms usually boils down to 'we have nukes/more/better nukes, obey or be destroyed' but it is still a vital tool separating the statesmen of the world from the Tamerlanes and Joseph Konys.

It is also a murky and ambiguous and frustrating process even with all the cards tilted in your favor, the kind of stuff that requires actual experts and an arcane bureaucracy.

( Cut for length and links )

All of this has limited the USA's diplomatic options and made it vitally important that the USA have diplomacy now more than ever.

So what does the Oompa Loompa in the toupee want to do to repair things? Switch out an oil baron for the head of the CIA.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/15/pompeo-tillerson-state-cia-244905

These are concepts that fundamentally have been tried before, weighed in a balance scale and found wanting.

This would change nothing and only deepen the overall pitfalls. Nothing is easier for the rivals of an empire turning from a kingdom of gold to one of iron and rust than watching it perpetually sink itself further into a mire of its own making.

asthfghl

Iraqi Kurdistan in historic independence vote

Today, the people of Iraqi Kurdistan (and those territories currently contested between Baghdad and Erbil) will be voting on an independence referendum. The poll, initiated by the president of the Kurdish autonomy Masoud Barzani, is expected to win in a landslide.

Of course this doesn't mean there'll be a new country in Northern Iraq on the next day after the referendum. It's entirely possible that the referendum itself, whose legitimacy is being contested by the central authorities in Baghdad, could be a diplomatic game by Barzani, who is hoping to earn some points at the domestic political front. Like using the issue of Kurdish independence to marginalize his domestic opponents, and use the referendum to earn further concessions and benefits from the central Iraqi government.

It's become patently clear by now that the Kurdish people want their independence more badly than their leaders do. Still, there are at least five reasons why Europe and the EU should consider recognizing the result of the referendum.

( Read more... )

fridi

As per the monthly topic, Trump's UN speech comes just timely. If anyone had expected even a semblance of diplomacy and nuance in his address to the UN, they might've been struck by the depressing amount of predictability in the final product. Trump appeared before the UN session as a commander in chief rattling his nuclear sabres, rather than a statesman. And this failed to surprise anyone.

In his speech, he reiterated a Twitter jab he made the other day about Kim Jong Un, the Rocket Man. In the most important speech on foreign policy he has had since the start of his presidency, he told the world leaders that Rocket Man is on a suicide mission. Ha. Ha. Ha.

The insults in the speech of the president of the United States killed the last remaining hopes that he'd send an honest message to a regime that's been challenging its neighbors for years. It's time for NK to realize that quitting nukes is the only responsible future for them, Trump argued before the UN - which by itself may sound like a relatively rational requirement. Unfortunately, what would remain in memory from this speech is his choice of an Elton John song to irritate the fellow Dear Leader of a rogue state with nuclear aspirations.

( Read more... )

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Talk politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods.

Entries tagged with diplomacy

Shoot your other leg now, why don't you

Gas, Huawei, and loads of democracy

These two don't like each other

Oh wow!

The world's laughing stock

Turkey/America: the divorce

So much for the special relationship

Oh, it gets better

Pecunia non olet*

101 on dealing with Russian leaders

Turkey; The Rhine scenario

Whom does Trump's Jerusalem decision serve?

The Jerusalem move: hardly a surprise

Putin's winning the Middle East

Speaking of Dysfunctional Institutions:

Support Kurdistan, why don't we!

Re: Divisive Rhetoric -- Trump's UN speech

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June 2025

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