[identity profile] luvdovz.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
A curious form of protest was invented in Belarus. Hand clapping. People who are disgusted with the economic drama, the political comedy and all the figureheads serving the man with the black mustache and the funny military hat, Lukashenko, are clapping in silence because they know the mock applause is the most eloquent criticism. There was a time the Russian poet Osip Mandelstam used to write mock poems about Stalin, but the final drop of patience in the Politburo came when he eventually composed a "praise" ode for dear-leader. Then he was sent to the GULags.

The fake applause is deafening. I saw on TV (the No Comment section on Euronews) a crowd standing beneath the commie-time monument in the center of Minsk where stone giants dressed in worker's uniforms stood in grandeur positions. But ordinary people below were clapping and not saying a word, not waving any protest signs, not chanting slogans, no songs, nothing that could have them arrested. Just standing there and hitting their hands against one another. But meanwhile there were cops (Militsia) going around the crowd with hi-tech HD cams making shots so they could later recognize the "instigators", while the instigators in turn were taking pics of the cops with their mobiles. Tech war at its best, eh?

And then the crackdown began.

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The thing is, these silent protests were organized through the social network. There's a group called "In contact" on FB, channeling the discontent with Lukashenko who has held his grip on power for 17 years, and who last December was re-re-re-elected with the "amazing" 80%. There were mass protests back then, but all that anger was quickly subdued through hundreds of arrests, including the detention of 7 of the presidential candidates who had bothered to take part in that farce, plus a couple dozen journalists who had dared to cover the event. But despite all that the opposition is not giving up, and this time it's flooding the social networks using the Arab model.

There are many protest groups but the main one is "Movement for the future - Revolution through the social network", founded by a 24 year old guy named Vyacheslav Dianov. For 3 years he has been an active participant in various political and civic activities against Lukashenko, but after the December protests his office in Minsk was stormed by the secret services (ironically, still officially called KGB in Belarus!), so he was forced to leave the country and move to Poland (which hosts many of the Belarussian dissidents, especially young students).

The idea of this movement is very simple. Each Wednesday, at 7 pm, everybody who's unhappy with Lukashenko's regime goes to the nearest square and silently claps with their hands. Nothing more. The purpose is to prevent the authorities from trying to formulate these flash-mobs as official protests and this way to avoid direct confrontation with the Militsia. But that obviously didn't help and you can see the result. Nevertheless, the protesters are not giving up.

Their purpose is also clear: the end of the Lukashenko regime, end of dictatorship and opening up the country for the world. Obviously the regime is scared of this situation, because people are going on the street without displaying any clear demands, slogans and open forms of protest. There are no known leaders. They don't attack the police. It's all a new form of protest which could hardly be controlled. You just can't get the instigators. Its power comes from the fact that all people gather in various locations at the same time, and they become more numerous every next week.

The social network is buzzing with this. Most participants are of the young generation, but apparently their parents are also on their side, although silently. Maybe they've lost hope that anything could change through protest, but obviously their kids beg to differ, so they won't give up. Sure, there are many who would claim that Lukashenko has made the country prosperous and safe, there's no crime on the streets, the cities are clean... But in fact at the moment the dirtiest gang of criminals occupies the top ranks in Belarus.

So last Wednesday was the third in a row, and still more people gathered. Still not too many, something like 2500-3000 in Minsk, but their number is growing. The movement has over 200 thousand online members, many other opposition groups with such funny names like "Fed up with Lukashenko", "Those who dreamt of Lukashenko" and "Lukashenkos around the world, unite" are flooding the internet every day.

Just how much the dictator is out of touch with the situation becomes evident from his claims (spoken at a press conference) that the typical protester is 16-17 years old, with a cigarette in his mouth, and with a girl in his arm. But the caricature aside, the regime's fear from these civic activities is obvious. Last month, when there were protests in 30 towns across Belarus, more than 400 people were arrested (data by the Vesna NGO). And coordinated hacker attacks against the Movement are also frequent.

There's skepticism among the old traditional opposition as well. For example Alexander Feduta (former Lukashenko ally, now turned his arch-rival, who was arrested in December but recently released from prison) said in a newspaper interview that the social networks are doing a nice job but it's not enough. The real change would happen not when some 20 year old kidos go around the street clapping, but when their 40 year old parents leave their work place and go on strike. Only then the regime would crumble, he claims. OK, maybe so. Time will tell. And that time may not be so far away.

Why? Because things are not as nice as they are made to look on the surface by the propaganda machine of the regime. The Belarussian Ruble has lost nearly 60% of its value for the first half of this year alone, dragging down the whole economy with it. Inflation is nearing 35%, the most basic goods are getting more expensive by the hour, and much worse, they're becoming scarce. The 500 dollar average salary promised by Lukashenko is more than a mirage now, and discontent is growing even within the security forces (the most hardcore supporters of the regime). It's a recipe for another Arab-style scenario.

The government is planning to privatize some of the state-owned companies to cover some of its short-term debts to Russia and Europe, but that's just a temporary solution. Even with the aid promised by the IMF, the economic situation would hardly stabilize for too long. And it's still unclear if Russia would run to the rescue once again.

Meanwhile the organization of the young opposition continues to develop and expand around the social networks, and it promises to give a lot of heat to the government during this summer. And of course next Wednesday at 7 pm the protesters will gather again around the squares and clap silently. Bravo, Lukashenko!

(no subject)

Date: 9/7/11 16:07 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] bex.livejournal.com
This is an amazing post, thank you so much for sharing - I had no idea this was going on. The footage is... terrifying, really. I mean, I can't even tell the cops from the rest of the crowd, just mobs of people grabbing other people and throwing them in the vans. If I knew one of those arrestees, I'd be scared I'd never see them again.

Just... wow. Amazing.

(no subject)

Date: 9/7/11 17:11 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Things are looking gloomier in Belarus every next day. Lukashenko is losing his last argument - the economy. And the reaction is more than hysterical. The country is facing bankruptcy, companies are going bust every day and unemployment is soaring. Even the electricity supply went down when Russia stopped it for a while because it wasn't being paid for ages. Lukashenko knows his weakening positions and his response is that of many dying dictatorships. Crackdowns on his political opponents, arrests of journalists, eventually he'll turn against his own people.

A BG journalist was arrested there, Dimitar Kenarov. The reason? He didn't have legal documents. But why didn't he have his documents at the time is subject to speculation. The official version is that he had lost them. But there's suspicion about a set-up, because he works for a number of US newspapers, including Esquire, and he probably entered the country to make a secret report. He had a US colleague with him. So you can see how his conveniently disappearing documents are a thing that looks too fishy.

With or without documents, foreign journalists are being targeted (http://www.amnesty.org/en/news-and-updates/belarus-rounds-%E2%80%98silent%E2%80%99-protesters-2011-06-30) in Belarus. Some of the journalists who were arrested last month on the demonstration that you showed were foreigners - they had all the necessary accreditations.

As for the clapping protests, it's a good start at least. The Belarusian people have tolerated this crap for far too long. It's probably the last remnant of the Soviets (save for Moldova, maybe) which still lives in the Soviet times. The justice minister said that if someone insists to stay at the square, that's not a crime. But if it's a big group of people, "We should think also about the freedom of the other people who are coming back from work... so the police would like to ask these crowds to go clap somewhere else". A lame excuse indeed, but then, that's probably the least lame thing about that regime.

(no subject)

Date: 9/7/11 20:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dwer.livejournal.com
and not a peep on mainstream American media. :(

(no subject)

Date: 9/7/11 23:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] blue-mangos.livejournal.com
You're giving the American media too much credit. It's all about Casey Anderson and Kate Middleton's underwear being exposed.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 07:53 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Linky? ;-)

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 00:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
I'm not sure the average reporter or owner in the US media knows there *is* a Belarus.

(no subject)

Date: 12/7/11 13:28 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] anfalicious.livejournal.com
It's been all over the news on our national broadcaster. This is why I don't watch the commercial networks.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 00:38 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
My prediction is that Lukashenko will simply repress this. Stalinists are very good at destroying any kind of resistance. I doubt the same Europe which sat by with genocide of Kosovars would stop Lukashenko if he decided to play Brezhnev in 1968. There'd be a profusion of "Oh, how terrible"s and then everybody would resume the question of whether or not Greece will default and fascist methods targeted at Gypsies.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 11:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
I think Russia's hoping this leads to a more peaceful 2008 that sees them actually take over a former SSR. It'd be for Belarus's own good and liberation, of course.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 17:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meindampf.livejournal.com
I doubt Russia wants such a gangrene developing right next door


Russia = (Belarus' gangrene) + Gas(Natural) + Oil(Urals) + (Motivation of the Heads to keep their personal returns abroad and enjoy their bank accounts unfrozen and thereby to blow about democratic intension for the future). Russia is a co-creator of the comrade Lukashenka

It appears...

Date: 10/7/11 00:41 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] sophia-sadek.livejournal.com
It looks like Belarus is still stuck in the old Soviet Union. The martial aesthetic is about the same as it was when they broke away from Russia.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 14:22 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] geezer-also.livejournal.com
For some reason this makes me very sad.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 18:18 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] lordtwinkie.livejournal.com
people who abuse power and strip people of their human rights make me sad.

(no subject)

Date: 10/7/11 21:52 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
No they make me angry.

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