[identity profile] pastorlenny.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Was just watching Obama's press conference. When asked about US oil reserves and rising oil prices, he cited two reaons for those rising prices: growing demand by growing economies (such as China and Brazil) and concerns about instability in the Mideast.

Why would he not include the influence of purely speculative capital chasing market-gaming profits in his analysis? Are we so naive as to believe that the oil market is simply governed by supply and demand? Does no one understand how commodity markets work -- and how readily they are manipulated by capital interests?

Protip: Every barrel of oil is subject to 15-27 speculative trades before it is consumed. And regulators have absolutely no way of governing this activity.

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Date: 11/3/11 18:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] fizzyland.livejournal.com
Does any major politician address the elephant in the room when it comes to this topic?

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Date: 11/3/11 19:44 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
No, we're not allowed to talk about our relative lack of domestic drilling.

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Date: 11/3/11 21:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mrsilence.livejournal.com
What do you mean? There an infinite supply of oil!

And when that becomes scarce (which will never happen), we have plenty of phlogiston to replace it with.

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Date: 11/3/11 18:40 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] singlethink.livejournal.com
Concerns about instability is part the speculative trades. "Concerns" has nothing to do with supply or demand, it has to do with speculation. If he wanted to talk about supply, he would have said "supply being reduced by instability in the Mideast."

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Date: 11/3/11 18:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
The psychological factor is huge on markets, yes. Prices don't reflect the true cost of commodities, but the expected cost of commodities.

Futures Market

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Re: Futures Market

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Date: 11/3/11 18:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Speculative tricks on the oil and gas market are affecting us big time (I mean the whole Eastern European region). The prices are soaring and people have started whispering "protest".

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Date: 11/3/11 19:25 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] korean-guy-01.livejournal.com
And we still have no worthwhile energy policy. Good luck selling those gimped $40k Chevy Volts, Government Motors!

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Date: 11/3/11 21:46 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kinvore.livejournal.com
They're selling as soon as they're made, albeit production has been slow on the onset.
From: [identity profile] squidb0i.livejournal.com
And they're STILL selling them as fast as they make them.
http://gm-volt.com/2011/02/02/as-volt-sales-outpace-the-leaf-gm-works-on-lowering-price/
So much for your theory.

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Date: 11/3/11 19:29 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] telemann.livejournal.com
I understood that it was up to 30 and 40 trades, and Goldman-Sachs has a big hand in the market (as usual).

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Date: 11/3/11 19:37 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] politikitty.livejournal.com
The speculative market is good for the economy. Without it, the market could not take into account the expected supply shifts of important commodities.

Driving up the price today ensures that we consume less and have an incentive to find alternative energy solutions. Without it, we don't have any time to acclimate to period of severe supply shortages.

I understand why this might suck for the person who might not live to see tomorrow, but I fail to see how this is a bad thing.

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Sure!

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Date: 11/3/11 19:40 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
How much do those trades add to the cost of the oil? I know that US taxes add, on average, about 75¢ to every gallon of gas.

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Date: 13/3/11 09:09 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] allhatnocattle.livejournal.com
Is there a tax per trade?

And gas taxes are cheap in USA. 75cents/gallon pays for all those potholes to get worse.

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Date: 11/3/11 19:43 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] badlydrawnjeff.livejournal.com
Why would he not include the influence of purely speculative capital chasing market-gaming profits in his analysis?

Because "purely speculative capital chasing market-gaming profits" are driven by growing demand and concerns about instability. Obama also left hostility to drilling out, but the speculators are driven by the same things consumers and producers are.

Protip: Every barrel of oil is subject to 15-27 speculative trades before it is consumed. And regulators have absolutely no way of governing this activity.

More reason to get more oil out there.

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Date: 11/3/11 20:27 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] meus-ovatio.livejournal.com
It has become its own system. Sure, it was supposed to be an auxiliary market limited to a certain amount of activity, but like that was ever going to happen as planned.

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Date: 11/3/11 20:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gunslnger.livejournal.com
If you want to complain about how commodity futures are done, maybe you should be more specific and give reasons why you don't like them other than "they're speculative", since that's the fundamental point of that system.

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Date: 11/3/11 21:47 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kinvore.livejournal.com
So what can be done to curtail if not stop speculation?

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Date: 11/3/11 22:06 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] the-rukh.livejournal.com
just because it caused a previous spike in oil prices and absolutely nothing has changed to prevent it doesn't mean its the cause of the current sharp increase in oil prices.

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Date: 12/3/11 01:48 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] farchivist.livejournal.com
What surprises me is how the people who demand that we increase domestic production don't realize that the generals are screaming "NO, YOU FUCKING IDIOTS!" at the top of their lungs. I don't think the Domestic Drillers realize how that would impact our national security.

Could it be that no on realizes that our national security plans rely on us being the last ones with any oil and making everyone else run out first?

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Date: 12/3/11 22:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] kylinrouge.livejournal.com
A bunch of banks are buying more tankers to store their oil off-shore. They're going to keep buying and waiting for that magical price ceiling and then sell for as much as they possibly can.

The "free market" is an instrument of greed.
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Date: 13/3/11 09:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] allhatnocattle.livejournal.com
There are a few ways to work this out for achieving the supply of oil from nations that are sometimes hostile, politically turbulent, undependable and generally unreliable.

The one way is to wage war. Install and/or foster western friendly stable regimes at whatever cost. Forget human rights. Just ensure an uninterrupted steady flow of oil to arrive in NewOrleans and we're all happy.

The way since the cold war ended has been more directly through the markets. Sellers sell for best price they can get, buyers buy for best deal they can manage. Politics are generally left out. At least left to the side of the oil trade. No need to secure Libyan supply before Soviets do.

Speculators don't stabilize gas/oil prices, but they don't really destabilize them. True prices can jump enormously in short time. They can make mountains out of political molehills. And gas pump prices can and do follow. But this went on with OPEC setting the price.

That's the real question here. Who do you want setting the price? Speculators and traders? Oil company execs? Or Emirs, shieks, generals and Presidents?
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