(no subject)
11/3/11 13:28![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png)
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Was just watching Obama's press conference. When asked about US oil reserves and rising oil prices, he cited two reaons for those rising prices: growing demand by growing economies (such as China and Brazil) and concerns about instability in the Mideast.
Why would he not include the influence of purely speculative capital chasing market-gaming profits in his analysis? Are we so naive as to believe that the oil market is simply governed by supply and demand? Does no one understand how commodity markets work -- and how readily they are manipulated by capital interests?
Protip: Every barrel of oil is subject to 15-27 speculative trades before it is consumed. And regulators have absolutely no way of governing this activity.
Why would he not include the influence of purely speculative capital chasing market-gaming profits in his analysis? Are we so naive as to believe that the oil market is simply governed by supply and demand? Does no one understand how commodity markets work -- and how readily they are manipulated by capital interests?
Protip: Every barrel of oil is subject to 15-27 speculative trades before it is consumed. And regulators have absolutely no way of governing this activity.
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Date: 11/3/11 18:37 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 19:44 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 11/3/11 21:37 (UTC)And when that becomes scarce (which will never happen), we have plenty of phlogiston to replace it with.
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Date: 11/3/11 18:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 18:46 (UTC)(no subject)
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From:Re: Futures Market
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Date: 11/3/11 18:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 19:25 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 21:46 (UTC)The price is out of line with real market value by a factor of two.
Date: 16/3/11 04:00 (UTC)http://gm-volt.com/2011/02/02/as-volt-sales-outpace-the-leaf-gm-works-on-lowering-price/
So much for your theory.
(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 19:29 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 19:37 (UTC)Driving up the price today ensures that we consume less and have an incentive to find alternative energy solutions. Without it, we don't have any time to acclimate to period of severe supply shortages.
I understand why this might suck for the person who might not live to see tomorrow, but I fail to see how this is a bad thing.
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Date: 11/3/11 20:02 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 11/3/11 19:40 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 20:08 (UTC)Also from 4Q07 to 2Q08, we saw the largest price increase in history. During this time, actual demand was going down and actual supply was going up. The only factor driving the price increase was the massive amount of cash flowing into commodity markets, driving up available bidding dollars.
(no subject)
Date: 13/3/11 09:09 (UTC)And gas taxes are cheap in USA. 75cents/gallon pays for all those potholes to get worse.
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Date: 11/3/11 19:43 (UTC)Because "purely speculative capital chasing market-gaming profits" are driven by growing demand and concerns about instability. Obama also left hostility to drilling out, but the speculators are driven by the same things consumers and producers are.
Protip: Every barrel of oil is subject to 15-27 speculative trades before it is consumed. And regulators have absolutely no way of governing this activity.
More reason to get more oil out there.
(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 20:12 (UTC)No, that's demonstrably false -- and a common myth peddled by "free marketers."
In fact, prices can also be bid up by the simple fact that there is more cash in commodity markets.
On September 22, the price of oil rose $25 on a single day without ANY change in supply or demand -- or news/predictions thereof. The only reason for the run-up was a market manipulation of dollars chasing margin.
Also from 4Q07 to 2Q08, we saw the largest price increase in history. During this time, actual demand was going down and actual supply was going up. The only factor driving the price increase was the massive amount of cash flowing into commodity markets, driving up available bidding dollars.
It is intersting to me that people still think supply and demand have anything to do with technical trading.
I might have to do a post here about the difference between fundamental and technical traders.
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Date: 11/3/11 20:27 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 20:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 20:53 (UTC)How do you feel about what the Hunt brothers did in the silver market back in 1989? Do you think it was unfair for the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission to fine them? What sorts of activities should and should not be proscribed when it comes to commodity trading? Or should there be no regulations on such markets altogether?
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Date: 11/3/11 21:47 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 22:00 (UTC)Also, my post is not so much about taking a position that this is some huge problem that needs to be fixed. It's about the blatant naivete and ignorance that characterizes discussions of economics. Here we have POTUS speaking rather plain balderdash in public, unchallenged by a press that couldn't find the Merc with both hands.
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Date: 11/3/11 22:06 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/3/11 22:43 (UTC)This is from an IMF report. I mean, I don't know why anyone is arguing against the rather plainly acknowledged facts of the matter.
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Date: 11/3/11 23:22 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 12/3/11 01:48 (UTC)Could it be that no on realizes that our national security plans rely on us being the last ones with any oil and making everyone else run out first?
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Date: 12/3/11 22:56 (UTC)The "free market" is an instrument of greed.
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Date: 13/3/11 09:54 (UTC)The one way is to wage war. Install and/or foster western friendly stable regimes at whatever cost. Forget human rights. Just ensure an uninterrupted steady flow of oil to arrive in NewOrleans and we're all happy.
The way since the cold war ended has been more directly through the markets. Sellers sell for best price they can get, buyers buy for best deal they can manage. Politics are generally left out. At least left to the side of the oil trade. No need to secure Libyan supply before Soviets do.
Speculators don't stabilize gas/oil prices, but they don't really destabilize them. True prices can jump enormously in short time. They can make mountains out of political molehills. And gas pump prices can and do follow. But this went on with OPEC setting the price.
That's the real question here. Who do you want setting the price? Speculators and traders? Oil company execs? Or Emirs, shieks, generals and Presidents?
(no subject)
Date: 14/3/11 21:28 (UTC)Bear raids are a common manipulative tactic of short-sellers.