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talkpolitics“When men with guns who have always claimed to be against the system start wearing uniforms and marching with torches and the picture of a leader, the end is nigh. When the pro-leader paramilitary and the official police and military intermingle, the end has come.”
One of the Democrats’ more conspiracy-prone themes has lately been their insistence that if Trump loses the election, he likely will refuse to leave office, in effect staging a coup. Most recently the claim was made by Bernie Sanders:
Bernie Sanders warns that Trump may not concede the election
Well, while at least part of this sounds like projection, it's not like we'd be surprised if it actually happens. Of course, at least technically there's nothing that Trump has done (yet) in office that would suggest he'd break the law in such a blatant way, it's not as far-fetched and crazy based on things he has said.
Undermining democracy and sowing doubt in the election process and using the government for his own benefit to get elected isn't enough, huh?
In Trump's view, losing the election would make him a Loser and a Sucker, and he's not going to handle that well. The risk of an electoral meltdown is ordinarily rather small, but this November promises a combination of stressors that could lead to epic failure and chaos.
So let's run with the hypothetical situation and try to imagine how that'd unfold, shall we? I'm all ears! Gimme your worst scenarios!
One of the Democrats’ more conspiracy-prone themes has lately been their insistence that if Trump loses the election, he likely will refuse to leave office, in effect staging a coup. Most recently the claim was made by Bernie Sanders:
Bernie Sanders warns that Trump may not concede the election
Well, while at least part of this sounds like projection, it's not like we'd be surprised if it actually happens. Of course, at least technically there's nothing that Trump has done (yet) in office that would suggest he'd break the law in such a blatant way, it's not as far-fetched and crazy based on things he has said.
Undermining democracy and sowing doubt in the election process and using the government for his own benefit to get elected isn't enough, huh?
In Trump's view, losing the election would make him a Loser and a Sucker, and he's not going to handle that well. The risk of an electoral meltdown is ordinarily rather small, but this November promises a combination of stressors that could lead to epic failure and chaos.
So let's run with the hypothetical situation and try to imagine how that'd unfold, shall we? I'm all ears! Gimme your worst scenarios!
(no subject)
Date: 6/9/20 19:45 (UTC)The recent reports about Trump’s scandalous comments about service personnel may mean the military officer cadre are less likely to support him; but as for other ranks, it’s in the balance.
But it looks like he’s blown his chance to enlist the military in any potential attempt of clinging-on-to-power; in which case such an idea is completely stillborn.
(no subject)
Date: 6/9/20 23:38 (UTC)Theres no swearing-out ceremony. Ideally, they leave quietly - and even more ideally they stay that way.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 02:01 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 02:28 (UTC)Maybe the best thing for the country would be a landslide.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 06:32 (UTC)It’s all gone a bit awry. Sensible folk have to try to reach across the divide to stop the possible madness from developing.
But the lock is broken, and the beast is rattling it’s cage.
This has been fomented and enabled over decades under the guise of the ordinary evolution of normal partisan politics. Either by accident or design you are closer to civil war than at any time since the Civil War. The US needs to fix this without descending into the abyss.
You need someone to reconcile the people. Or at least take the heat out of things.
(no subject)
Date: 6/9/20 23:51 (UTC)I'd expect Trump will claim victory right away if he's ahead on election day and try to paint any additional counting of votes as "stealing the election". Maybe legal challenges to aspects of the vote-counting process could tip things if it's close, but I don't think it's super likely that the Electoral College will be prevented from voting in accordance with the ultimate result of state elections.
I do expect if Trump loses there will definitely be a Wisconsin-style lame duck power grab, where they try to strip the executive of power to change existing regulations (i.e. try to prevent Biden from doing to Trump what Trump did to Obama). That matters a lot more if the Democrats fail to take both houses of Congress, but I'd expect it to be attempted in any case if Trump loses.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 01:42 (UTC)Medium scenario: He declares it, military evicts him, a massive short-term to medium term wave of larger-scale domestic terrorism.
Worst case scenario: A protracted second US Civil War that's basically Gringo La Violencia.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 08:11 (UTC)Worst case scenarios in order of magnitude:
Least worst case scenario: Trump leaves the White House on January 20th escorted by the same military he disparaged and there is some civil unrest / domestic terrorism, like a mass shooting here, a bombing there.
Next least worst case scenario: Trump leaves the White House on January 20th escorted by the same military he disparaged and we see something on the magnitude of 9/11 (possibly on the 20th anniversary of 9/11) except it's proven beyond doubt it's our people (in other words: no conspiracy theories that it's an inside job; it absolutely is an inside job). As far as what major landmark, that's anybody's guess.
Next least worst case scenario: Trump refuses to leave, military doesn't evict him, we have full-on civil war.
Worst case scenario: Trump refuses to leave, military doesn't evict him, we not only have full-on civil war but the rest of the world sees us as the new Axis Powers and we're going to get attacked by someone somewhere.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:41 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 09:13 (UTC)There will of course be some heavily armed rednecks that will show up for Trump, possibly hundreds. Worst case they won't be peaceful... and mostly it's a worst case for them.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:39 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:45 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:55 (UTC)(This is me, feeling old that I remember the OJ trial.)
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:38 (UTC)With Trump there is only one constant, tomorrow WILL be worse.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:43 (UTC)Worst scenario: he locks himself in the toilet, tweeting furiously for 3 days after his defeat, Secret Service trying to knock the door down and escort him out of the White House. Eventually he runs out of hamburgers and leaves on his own. That doesn't mean the furious tweeting will cease afterwards, though.
(no subject)
Date: 7/9/20 12:49 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 10/9/20 17:18 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/9/20 17:50 (UTC)Btw, welcome back! Where have you been?
(no subject)
Date: 11/9/20 18:48 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 11/9/20 21:22 (UTC)