arhalvaztrirjournal: (Default)
[personal profile] arhalvaztrirjournal posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
I mean now the USA will finally be overtly intervening with what will either spark a civil war (because to be crudely frank Maduro, like Chavez, has an army and the other guy doesn't and dictators always like shooting first knowing that as long as they say 'death to the Great Satan/American imperialism' a good portion of the US and global media will defend the shot up corpses as the price of progress and an inevitable good thing) or at least a massacre in an oil-rich state that isn't a mostly Muslim one.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-46980913

To be equally fair, I've never understood the immense gulf in the global left's view of Hugo Chavez versus Nicolas Maduro. Ideologically Maduro is far the better choice for the Left, he's a genuine proletarian, and much more ideologically consistent. All Chavez proves is that anyone who defends him and hates Pinochet only hates a military coup not given the appropriate magic words, not a generals' putsch on principle.

In particular articles like this are the purest quality of horseshit, written to obfuscate that Chavez played as fast and loose with banning opposition as Maduro's done, and that both of them created a petrostate one-trick pony of an economy that has the same problem all the others do.

https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2017/05/maduro-chavez-170513145531916.html


To be fair some media coverage grudgingly recognizes a general who tried the same stunt Pinochet did wasn't a guy who created an 'economic miracle' but instead your average garden variety Santa Anna/Juan Peron wannabe who had a good PR firm that enabled the global Left to suddenly rally behind a military despot of the kind they otherwise usually savor their biggest volleys for whenever they're not focused monomaniacally on the USA.

http://theconversation.com/how-todays-crisis-in-venezuela-was-created-by-hugo-chavezs-revolutionary-plan-6147

Essentially, I think that Maduro's gotten a bum rap, and that on the basis of the sterling successes of prior US intervention that he may have actually achieved a miracle of his own because at the rate the USA's Reverse Midas Touch factor applies, odds are just as well he ends up making the entire northern part of South America his bitch, routing a pro-US coup by simple 1989 China methods, and becoming a more successful Fidel Castro with an oilfield. He's no better and no worse than Chavez, it's just that when Chavez died the myth that Venezuela was anything but a corrupt despotic petrodictatorship fell with him and his successor was never able to recreate it save in the eyes of the people making martyrs out of people like the House of Kim.

This is also the first time in a while that the USA has openly endorsed interference in Venezuelan politics, which is especially ironic given all the hullabaloo about Russian intervention. I think the real crime Putin did in the eyes of Americans was reminding us that we're not that different in the right hands from what we've done to other countries, and are no more immune to it than they are. When the USA does this to other countries, it's the god-given right of an empire to fuck with the sovereignty and electoral processes of other states, while God help the person who dares to treat the USA thus!

Naturally too I expect literally no major US media outlets will ever notice this bit of dissonance at any point in the whole mess here, and will take for granted that when the Colossus of the North clenches its Infinity Gauntlet that it is thus perfectly fulfilling its balanced geopolitical role, and not a case of imperialist hypocrisy to Biblical proportions.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 14:13 (UTC)
From: [personal profile] mikeyxw
Venezuela has already produced a refugee crisis that is almost as big as the one in Syria and it's getting bigger. The US public reaction has been to not really notice. The US already gets about a million people from Latin America every year, which is about as many as came to Europe during the height of the refugee crisis, so it's not like you're going to notice Venezuelan refugees in the US unless you go looking for them. They are now the largest group of asylum seekers in the US and have been for a couple of years.

Colombia, Brazil, and a few other South American countries, on the other hand, are having some very different experiences. This didn't take a conflict to cause and there probably (and hopefully) won't be a conflict. Still, there will probably be more Venezuelan refugees by the end of this year than Syrian ones.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 14:51 (UTC)
nairiporter: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nairiporter
Depends which refugee destinations we're comparing. The bulk of the Syrian refugees end up in neighbouring countries, not Europe. Turkey has already absorbed millions of them, using them almost as slaves to run its economy. Others are in Jordan, Lebanon, etc, in refugee camps. I'm not sure most Venezuelan refugees would want to stay in neighbouring countries, though. So this problem might become mostly America's, and you are right that it is potentially bigger than the Syrian refuge crisis, because Venezuela has almost twice Syria's population.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 15:08 (UTC)
From: [personal profile] mikeyxw
Most Venezuelans have stayed in neighboring countries. The US has absorbed only about 125,000 Venezuelans while Colombia has taken in over a million and Brazil is closing in on a million. The rest of South America has, combined, taken about one million as well. Really, Colombia has received more as there were a lot of dual citizens who simply moved back. This is pretty similar to what happened in Syria, folks want to stay in a similar culture where they speak the same language.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 20:41 (UTC)
nairiporter: (Default)
From: [personal profile] nairiporter
Like those in the Caravan? ;-)

(no subject)

Date: 25/1/19 07:45 (UTC)
mahnmut: (Default)
From: [personal profile] mahnmut
Didn't Mexico absorb most of the Caravan? I'm a bit behind on the news.

(no subject)

Date: 26/1/19 00:00 (UTC)
garote: (Default)
From: [personal profile] garote
It did, yes. As everyone but the GOP predicted months ago.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 16:24 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
Seems a rational call.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 17:31 (UTC)
From: [personal profile] mikeyxw
Interesting idea but I expect Bolsonaro will follow a populist line, and there has never been much support in South American countries for wars between each other. Besides, a failed socialist regime that was supported by his political opponents is too great of a gift for any fascist wannabe to go and break. I certainly might be missing some subtleties of Brazilian politics, but I expect he'll take the "let it burn!" approach.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 18:12 (UTC)
From: [personal profile] mikeyxw
Sorry, excessive editing. I meant in recent history and initially wrote it as such. Yes, 19th century and early 20th century history are very different.

(no subject)

Date: 24/1/19 18:25 (UTC)
From: [personal profile] mikeyxw
I thought we're talking about direct, military conflict in South America, not funding your neighbor's rebels or dealing drugs. Also, I specifically said South America, of which Cuba isn't part. If this was about Central America, this would be very different.

Anyhow, there probably isn't going to be some kind of insurgency in Venezuela that could be funded, a coup is much more likely.

Credits & Style Info

Talk Politics.

A place to discuss politics without egomaniacal mods


MONTHLY TOPIC:

Failed States

DAILY QUOTE:
"Someone's selling Greenland now?" (asthfghl)
"Yes get your bids in quick!" (oportet)
"Let me get my Bid Coins and I'll be there in a minute." (asthfghl)

June 2025

M T W T F S S
       1
2 345678
9101112131415
16171819202122
23242526272829
30      

Summary

OSZAR »