talkpolitics | Friday offtopic. Gulf Stream trouble

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Crying wolf or a real threat?

The Gulf Stream Is Slowing Down. What Would Happen If It Stopped?

"The AMOC is presently in its weakest state for more than 1,000 years".

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From:

abomvubuso

I'm just gonna leave this here.
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3276/nasa-finds-june-2023-hottest-on-record/

From:

dewline

I would classify this as a Real Threat. Or a real opportunity, possibly both at once.

How we deal with it as a species, or at least a collection of somewhat like-minded nations...this is where the COP sessions, as well as several of the collective-defence and collective-R&D alliances come into their own usefulness.

Edited Date: 28/7/23 21:15 (UTC)

From:

tcpip

Hello! Long-time no comment, recent news in my life I'm now doing a master's in climate change science and policy.

Yes! Real threat! However it's not just a threat to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, but rather to the Thermohaline Circulation as a whole which, as the name implies, transports heat and salt ... and oceanic nutrients. It takes a long time to move around (like, 1000 years).

Now, a recent (July 25, 2023) statement from the University of Copenhagen explained: "The researchers calculated that the ocean current, known as the thermohaline circulation or the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), will collapse - with 95% certainty - between 2025 and 2095."

"Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation"
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

I am wondering aloud whether this will be in the next IPCC report.

What would happen? Equatorial regions would become hotter, polar regions would become much colder, and with particular biases, the southern hemispheres would go up; the northern would go down (generally the northern hemisphere is hotter than the southern, due to landmass and oceanic circulation).

It would also affect the ocean's capacity to absorb CO2, meaning higher global atmospheric temperatures.

And lots of ocean life would be quite seriously affected.

Fun times, eh?