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airiefairie ([personal profile] airiefairie) wrote in [community profile] talkpolitics2022-05-08 10:50 pm
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The danger that isn't over

14.9 million excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021

The COVID-19 epidemic has killed nearly 15 million people worldwide, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). This is nearly three times more than the officially reported death toll from the coronavirus, which is 5.4 million.

According to the WHO, overall global mortality has been 13% higher in the last two years than usual. In India alone, there were actually 4.7 million COVID-19-related deaths, or 10 times more than officially reported.

Many countries seem to have underestimated coronavirus mortality data in an attempt to better reflect their response and policies against the pandemic. The Indian government has even questioned the WHO's assessment, saying it has "concerns" about the methodology, but other independent studies have come to similar conclusions about the number of deaths in the country.

New WHO estimates use the indicator of "over-mortality" or how many more people have died than expected related to the average mortality before the COVID-19 pandemic. This column also includes deaths from other diseases that have been a result of overcrowding of national health systems and limited access to hospitals due to the coronavirus infection.

However, the WHO is adamant that most of the extra 9.5 million deaths are a direct result of COVID-19, not indirect victims. In Egypt, the death rate is 11.6 times higher than the officially reported deaths from the coronavirus pandemic. In India - 10 times. In Pakistan - 8 times. In Serbia 4.4 times. In Russia - 3.5 times.

Meanwhile for China, Japan and Australia, the WHO data shows a reduction in overall mortality since the beginning of the pandemic. Strict restrictive measures against the spread of the coronavirus were imposed in these countries very early on, which may have prevented the spread of other infectious diseases. China continues to pursue a "zero COVID" policy, including mass testing and quarantine of millions of people.

There may be countries with higher mortality from coronavirus infection than in Egypt and India, but many countries around the world lack reliable statistics on deaths. This is especially true in Africa. According to Professor John Wakefield of the University of Washington in Seattle, who participated in the WHO study, there are no reliable statistics for 41 of the 54 African countries.

With many restrictions now lifted worldwide, we may think the pandemic is over and gone, but we might be in for a nasty surprise, come autumn.
dewline: Text - "On the DEWLine" (Default)

[personal profile] dewline 2022-05-08 08:09 pm (UTC)(link)
Who says the virus is going to wait for the Northern-Hemispheric autumn?

Whoever it is, I want to laugh at max volume at their eardrums over whatever remote transmission system is available to me.
asthfghl: (Слушам и не вярвам на очите си!)

[personal profile] asthfghl 2022-05-08 08:48 pm (UTC)(link)
90% of the world's population lives in the northern hemisphere.
asthfghl: (Слушам и не вярвам на очите си!)

[personal profile] asthfghl 2022-05-09 04:22 am (UTC)(link)
Don't you see how that's relevant to the northern-centric view on the pandemic?
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[personal profile] oportet 2022-05-08 11:33 pm (UTC)(link)
When handicapping results country by country, we have to remember that out of China, Japan and Australia - 2 are islands, and the other created the virus. Those are definitely advantages, possibly significant ones.

I think reinstating restrictions will be hard to sell to the people - wherever selling things to the people is necessary.

[personal profile] jazzyjj 2022-05-09 12:14 pm (UTC)(link)
Hmmmm, this doesn't surprise me much if at all given that in many parts of my country, there are still those who refuse to follow CDC guidelines no matter what. I attended my niece's violin recital in a nearby state on Saturday, and then we all went and got frozen custard. My sister--her mother--was commenting how out of hand the situation has gotten in their state. She has been coaching soccer, and at least 2 players tested positive only within the past few weeks. Just for the record, we ate outside but had our masks at the ready. Their state currently has a Democratic governor, as does mine.