[identity profile] yahvah.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Société Générale strategist Dylan Grice explained the connection between debt and inflation. Turning Milton Friedman on his head, Grice argued that “inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon.” Money printing may be the vehicle, but the “root cause” of inflation tends to be “a government unable to pay its way.”

http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/11/10/the-inflation-time-bomb/

I find Dylan Grice's assertion to be refreshing because of the use of "root cause" as the justification for the assertion. In my field of work, root cause analysis is a regular part of the job. It definitely shouldn't be ignored just because it's something used mostly in engineering. Even if you could name all the instances of inflation where the intent was to provide enough money for all the people, would those instances outnumber those which were the government spending for things it can't afford with its revenue?

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 03:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] reality-hammer.livejournal.com
This completely ignores the periods of inflation due to policies such as wage and price controls. (Or, if you prefer, their eventual end.)

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 04:26 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] reality-hammer.livejournal.com
Wage and price controls artificially suppress demand. When they are removed demand far exceeds normal levels, causing inflation.

The standard definition of inflation as "too many dollars chasing too few goods" is good at capturing inflation no matter what the "root cause" may be.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 05:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] tcpip.livejournal.com
And where do those dollars come from, eh?

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 12:23 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] root-fu.livejournal.com
Debt leads to printing more money.
Printing more money leads to inflation.
Inflation leads to suffering.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 13:41 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
I'm no economist, but everything I know says that minor inflation (1%, 2%, etc.) is good because it's a nonharmful incentive to buy stuff.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 14:08 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
I tend to think that deflation would be an incentive for workers to buy stuff despite gradually falling wages to equal the cost of living, but I agree that the rate for deflation should be very low like 1-2%.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 14:30 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
The problem with deflation is that people obsessed with money would be less likely to buy stuff, as waiting during deflation literally makes them richer.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 14:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com
I must realize that there is a bit of a trade off between two sides, but then, would 0% inflation be the most optimal level?

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 14:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
Depends what the interest rates were like.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 15:30 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
Makes compound interest more of a burden over a long period, though.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 15:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
In turn retailers drop their prices further to incite them to buy. In turn the buyers continue waiting to save more money. Or so the theory of a deflationary spiral goes. To which i say bullshit. If it was true, no one would ever buy any computer equipment or a flat screen TV. Why pay $3500 today when you can pay $2500 next year? Or $1000 in 2 years?

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 16:56 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
But people actually do that. Not everyone, of course, but a significant number of people will put off buying, say, a DVD player, until it's cheaper. Now imagine that every good is treated that way, and unlike DVD players or computers, there's little risk that something like your house is going to be outdated by the time you buy it.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 17:07 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Yet sales of DVD players have been going up. And why shouldn't they as prices drop? And if people want to wait to save money, that's fine. And of people want to be the first on their block to own a Holographic Disc player and pay $1000 extra for it, that's fine as well.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 17:09 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
Demand for technology products is a funny thing, cos price changes greatly with time, and negatively. New technology is always expensive at first, mainly because one can earn good money on people with inelastic demand ("gotta have that TV before everyone else") and because the producers might be afraid the product will be a flop, so they'll try to secure as much money as possible from the first purchasers. Then, as marginal costs of producing one extra TV are very small, prices will be lowered so that it can and will be bought by the mass market. The mass market, that means most people, "know" that the TV will drop in price for some time, and then stabilise as the price comes closer to marginal costs of production (though, of course, they're not really ever close). When the price drop starts to flatten, people will take it as a sign that it has reached the "lowest level", and will start buying the TV, even if it might drop a bit more. After all, they might save some money on buying the TV at a later point, but then they dont get to watch TV in the meanwhile. There's a "waiting cost".

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 17:13 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Yeah pretty much true. Part of the initial high cost is R&D. But it drops over time as well.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 17:18 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
You should probably differentiate what sort of deflation you're talking about.
1~2% per year has little effect on consumer spending.
The 30% per year from 1932 most certainly does.

(no subject)

Date: 3/12/09 00:03 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] gunslnger.livejournal.com
Because people look at value and not price, and time is a factor in value.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 15:33 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] a-new-machine.livejournal.com
Except inflation, by decreasing the value of your cash over time, encourages you to buy things. So I guess the time to buy is... right before inflation begins?

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 15:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
That isn't really turning anything on its head. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon meant to deal with fiscal shortcomings.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 15:44 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
Just pointing out that this would be no great revelation to Milton Friedman.

(no subject)

Date: 25/11/09 16:54 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] abomvubuso.livejournal.com
Re: the 0% inflation argument discussed above.

There are 2 main reasons why inflation isnt held at zero.

The first one is simply psychological. As time goes by, some jobs will be more profitable than others, and thus there'll be a need to move people from the less profitable and productive jobs to the more profitable ones. The easiest and most efficient way to do this is by changing relative wages - ie, if one job is giving double the utility/profitability as the other, then the first job should give twice the wage (its a simple example, but bear with me).

Now, if inflation is zero, there's no room to move in - the only way to increase the wages of the first job is by decreasing the wages in the second job, nominally. That means that if both earn 10 and the first job is double as profitable, you'd get a situation where the wage in job one are 12,66 and the wage in job 2 is 6,33. But because of unions, people's reactions to nominal reduction of wage and the political system, this is very hard to do. Thus instead, wage in job 1 is raised to 20 - meaning that the relative wage has been doubled, without decreasing the nominal wage in job two. And because we printed ten new money instead of just making a correction in the present money mass, we got inflation.

The second one, more present in the past few years, is that if inflation is held above zero, its possible to achieve negative interest rate in order to stimulate the economy. Take the US for example: the Fed's interest rate has been slashed down to zero, but inflations, and inflation expectations, are kept up at around 2-3%. That means that banks (which are the ones lending the money from the Fed) experience a negative interest rate of around -1 - -2% - in other words, they have to pay back less than they're borrowing, in real terms. If the banks proceed to lend this money out to others at a rate under the inflation rate, or not high above it, these borrowers will also experience a "free" loan. This stimulates investment, hopefully fueling the economy. Hopefully.

The problem is of course when inflation and inflation expectations arent positive, and remain at a very low level that leaves the central bank without the option of making "free" loans. This is what happened in Japan, which led to the so-called "lost decade" of growth.

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