(no subject)
24/11/09 21:18![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png)
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Société Générale strategist Dylan Grice explained the connection between debt and inflation. Turning Milton Friedman on his head, Grice argued that “inflation is always and everywhere a fiscal phenomenon.” Money printing may be the vehicle, but the “root cause” of inflation tends to be “a government unable to pay its way.”
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/11/10/the-inflation-time-bomb/
I find Dylan Grice's assertion to be refreshing because of the use of "root cause" as the justification for the assertion. In my field of work, root cause analysis is a regular part of the job. It definitely shouldn't be ignored just because it's something used mostly in engineering. Even if you could name all the instances of inflation where the intent was to provide enough money for all the people, would those instances outnumber those which were the government spending for things it can't afford with its revenue?
http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/11/10/the-inflation-time-bomb/
I find Dylan Grice's assertion to be refreshing because of the use of "root cause" as the justification for the assertion. In my field of work, root cause analysis is a regular part of the job. It definitely shouldn't be ignored just because it's something used mostly in engineering. Even if you could name all the instances of inflation where the intent was to provide enough money for all the people, would those instances outnumber those which were the government spending for things it can't afford with its revenue?
(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 03:31 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 03:35 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 04:26 (UTC)The standard definition of inflation as "too many dollars chasing too few goods" is good at capturing inflation no matter what the "root cause" may be.
(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 05:56 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 12:23 (UTC)Printing more money leads to inflation.
Inflation leads to suffering.
(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 13:41 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 14:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 14:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 14:54 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 25/11/09 15:30 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 15:31 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 15:34 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 16:56 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 17:07 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 17:09 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 17:13 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 17:18 (UTC)1~2% per year has little effect on consumer spending.
The 30% per year from 1932 most certainly does.
(no subject)
Date: 3/12/09 00:03 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 14:41 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 15:33 (UTC)(no subject)
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Date: 25/11/09 15:08 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 15:44 (UTC)(no subject)
Date: 25/11/09 16:54 (UTC)There are 2 main reasons why inflation isnt held at zero.
The first one is simply psychological. As time goes by, some jobs will be more profitable than others, and thus there'll be a need to move people from the less profitable and productive jobs to the more profitable ones. The easiest and most efficient way to do this is by changing relative wages - ie, if one job is giving double the utility/profitability as the other, then the first job should give twice the wage (its a simple example, but bear with me).
Now, if inflation is zero, there's no room to move in - the only way to increase the wages of the first job is by decreasing the wages in the second job, nominally. That means that if both earn 10 and the first job is double as profitable, you'd get a situation where the wage in job one are 12,66 and the wage in job 2 is 6,33. But because of unions, people's reactions to nominal reduction of wage and the political system, this is very hard to do. Thus instead, wage in job 1 is raised to 20 - meaning that the relative wage has been doubled, without decreasing the nominal wage in job two. And because we printed ten new money instead of just making a correction in the present money mass, we got inflation.
The second one, more present in the past few years, is that if inflation is held above zero, its possible to achieve negative interest rate in order to stimulate the economy. Take the US for example: the Fed's interest rate has been slashed down to zero, but inflations, and inflation expectations, are kept up at around 2-3%. That means that banks (which are the ones lending the money from the Fed) experience a negative interest rate of around -1 - -2% - in other words, they have to pay back less than they're borrowing, in real terms. If the banks proceed to lend this money out to others at a rate under the inflation rate, or not high above it, these borrowers will also experience a "free" loan. This stimulates investment, hopefully fueling the economy. Hopefully.
The problem is of course when inflation and inflation expectations arent positive, and remain at a very low level that leaves the central bank without the option of making "free" loans. This is what happened in Japan, which led to the so-called "lost decade" of growth.