nairiporter: (Default)
[personal profile] nairiporter posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Remember the Greek debt crisis that peaked in 2012? You could hardly go through the news without encountering the word "contagion". The idea was that the economic problems caused by the creditors' greed and/or economic mismanagement could've led to a financial crisis of global proportions. But Greece is relatively small.

Now the world could be facing a much bigger collapse. But curiously, the world's response is... silence. The thing is, if Britain fails to find a path to a controlled Brexit and leaves the EU without a deal (or fails to extend the Brexit deadline), the catastrophe could make Greece pale in comparison. A sudden breaking up of most economic ties between Britain and its main market, the EU, would have huge effects on all sides involved. It would severely cripple trans-border sea trade, it will disrupt the supply of essential goods such as foods, medicines, machine parts, etc. Most of that cargo traffic would be affected for the first half a year after the Brexit.

But that's just the beginning of the story. The longer-term economic damages would be even bigger. Most estimates predict about 9% GDP shrinking after such a Brexit. Which is much worse than the big 2009 recession. It would be coupled with rampant unemployment, surging interest rates, and a collapse of the British pound.

Of course, Britain is not Greece. This is the world's 5th largest economy. The British GDP is 13 times that of Greece. London is one of the leading financial hubs of the world (or rather, used to be, before some major banks started relocating to Frankfurt and elsewhere). Still, the big stocks markets heavily rely on the UK.

More than 1/3 of the world's currency trade passes through London, and almost as much of the global derivatives transactions. The British banking sector is worth about 10 trillion euro. It governs over 1/3 of Europe's finance assets. The British companies are among the leaders at the global insurance market.

Britain is a very complex economy, and in many respects one of the primary suppliers of finance services in the world. And right now, it is facing a unprecedented economic crisis. Sounds scary enough?

Then why is the world not that concerned about Brexit? Well, partially because of Britain's good reputation of a stable, safe and accessible place for doing business. This repupation has been developed over centuries. The British politicians are also generally viewed as traditionally pro-business.

This is why many leaders and CEOs simply cannot imagine how such a partner, one that for so long as been so reliably competent, could really be at the brink of such a huge act of self-destruction.

The rest of the world should be very concerned about Brexit, much more concerned than they appear to be. Yes, a future crisis could be more devastating for the UK than anyone else, but it will also have global repercussions.

Britain is just a couple of months away from a no-deal Brexit that would break the world's economy. And there is currently no plan for averting such a development, let alone support and understanding from the European partners during the negotiations. And no one seems to be panicking. Yet.

(no subject)

Date: 3/2/19 20:01 (UTC)
arhalvaztrirjournal: (Reject Your Reality)
From: [personal profile] arhalvaztrirjournal
The cultural factor is definitely a part of the mindset between the gap between fear of the Greek economy staying at its usual abysmal level, but so too I think is that state of dreamlike denial of reality that underlined much of say, the way that Saigon conducted the Vietnam War. There's a somewhat there awareness of what the truth actually is, and how the idea that the EU is going to respect the wishes of the British to leave the EU without any actual impact or consequences for Britons (to be fair until Brexit there's been plenty of no votes Brussels either ignores or forces people to vote until it turned into yes by sheer ennui) isn't there by anyone, but the sheer scale of that gap blocks anything done with that knowledge.

It's going to be ugly and cause a bigger global economic crisis, yes.

In reality people can and do slow-walk to their own destruction with their eyes wide open and do this all the time. Much less fun to live through it than to read about it, where with a gap of 100 or so years from the consequences it can come across rather Yes Minister/Good Soldier Svjek level comedy.

(no subject)

Date: 3/2/19 21:09 (UTC)
dewline: Text - "On the DEWLine" (Default)
From: [personal profile] dewline
No one?

The corporate exodus suggests that escaping the disaster as planned seems to be a priority for many. Stopping it is the priority of those seeking a second vote on Brexit.

(no subject)

Date: 4/2/19 10:10 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
Most of us over here are in a fugue state: Project Fear's predictions are all coming true, but folk can't even have the pleasure of "I told you so" because there is no pleasure, only grief at stupidity.

So mad.

BTW, the rest of the world will be ok. We, however, in Blighty, are about to get well and truly fucked.

Thirty years of spewing hate about immigration leaves us here. Now, long term, and with climate-change induced migration a big thing in the next half-century, maybe the lunatics wanting control over our borders will gain some unexpected benefits to aid the slightly-fascist takeover. It is all horrible and I want to die.

Maybe that's why some of us are not talking about it much.

(no subject)

Date: 4/2/19 11:14 (UTC)
dewline: Text - "On the DEWLine" (Default)
From: [personal profile] dewline
"...slightly-fascist..." seems understated when I look at Banks, Farage, Rees-Mogg and other like-brained reprobates, but seeing as we view the situation through similar lenses, I am uninterested in pursuing the quibble further.

(no subject)

Date: 4/2/19 10:28 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
However you do have a point about the knock-on effect.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/04/brexit-could-put-17-million-people-around-globe-into-extreme-poverty-study

There are also 60 million Brits who will be worse off. But that doesn't seem to matter.

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