nairiporter: (Default)
[personal profile] nairiporter posting in [community profile] talkpolitics
Russian journalists killed in Central African Republic ambush

The murder of three Russian journalists in Central Africa has suddenly directed the public interest towards the Russian presence in the war-torn country. The three were working on a documentary for about a month when they set off north in a SUV. At some point they were stopped at a police checkpoint and warned about the danger of proceeding further. Still, they did drive on, and 24 km later they were ambushed and murdered.

The authorities believe the most likely culrpit was the Seleka organization, which took the capital city in 2013 and deposed the president. This started a bloodshed involving various militant groups.

A media sponsored by Russian dissident Mikhail Khodorkovski reports that the three had a mission of investigating the presence of the Russian paramilitary group Vagner, which is believed to be taking part in civil wars in Ukraine and Syria. Of course the Russian government would never admit it has sanctioned the presence of mercenaries in Africa or anywhere else.

The thing is, the Central African Republic is under an arms embargo imposed by the UN security council since 2013 when the Seleka group took power. In response to that insurgency, a number of Christian militant groups emerged, and the ensuing violence resulted in thousands of casualties and hundreds of thousands fleeing their homes.

In 2016 Faustin-Archange Touadera was electer CAR president, but large portions of the country remained outside his jurisdiction and under the control of various armed formations, mostly those of the Seleka group and the Christian alliance known as Anti-balaka. In 2014 the UN kept a peace-keeping force in the country, but both that mission and the embargo are believed to have been largely ineffective.

Then last December, Russia arranged the shipment of arms and sent expert groups of UN trainers as part of the multinational peace-keeping effort. A few weeks later, Russia informed the UN security council (which was in charge of the arms embargo) of the presence of 175 Russian military instructors on the ground. 170 of them were declared as civilian instructors, the other 5 as members of the Russian military. It was claimed that their main tasks ranged from escorting convoys transporting building materials to hospitals, to providing security to those hospitals, to training police officers, including their equipment with Russian weapons.

Now a Russian national has been hired as national security advisor to president Touadera. The Bell, a Russian investigative journalism outlet has cited anonymous sources who claim that the private company Vagner is actually behind these instructors.

So what is Russia's interest in all this? The official version is that all they want is to secure peace in Central Africa, and that their involvement is merely part of the international effort for providing security and order. But there are also suspicions that Russia has economic interests in the resource-rich African country. Russia is currently probing the possibilities for a partnership in that area. Earlier this year a concession was signed for the exploration of an array of mineral deposits, in concurrence with infrastructural projects, much like the Chinese model that we have talked about here lately.

The Central African Republic is rich in gold, cobalt and diamonds. Russian president Putin has already met with his Central African counterpart in St.Petersburg, and has confirmed Russia's commitment to the further development of the bilateral relations.

Some Russian outlets like RIA have already started talking of CAR as of Russia's next geostrategic target, outright using terms like, "a bloodless mercenary takeover". Other African countries like Mozambique are also being mentioned in a similar vein (Mozambique is now said to be "restarting" its long-time "brotherhood" with Russia). DR Congo has also invited Russia to start a military partnership with them. We have recently talked about China's inroads into Djibouti; well, Djibouti is also negotiating with Russia about a Russian base there. These may have sounded like paranoid headlines from some conspiracy-theory tabloids a while ago, but now it is becoming reality, and fast.

The scramble for Africa is on.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 13:12 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
Well, I suppose if you're sitting as a head of an African state and you need development money for infrastructure and you're looking for a major partner you have four options: the EU, the US, China, and Russia. Of those blocks, the EU and the US are led by pettifogging bureaucrats and a delusional mythomane respectively. An autocratic leader isn't really going to want to do business with either; though the mythomane may at least be amusing. And lots of Africa has gone Chinese, so the Russians have to bid a little more - which they will...

Business is business, after all the tautologies have been worked through and understood.

I'd guess a lot of Africa would think the West has carked; I may agree with them but still consider it to be premature. The minute Uncle Vlad goes it will be like the death of Tyrwin Lannister - and it's not as if Uncle Vlad has made Russia that many really good friends of the non-impeachable variety.
Edited Date: 23/8/18 14:12 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 14:18 (UTC)
abomvubuso: (Pffft... oh noes!)
From: [personal profile] abomvubuso
Curious, how will Tywin Putin go down. Probably something involving a crossbow while squatting on a chamber pot, metaphorically speaking of course?

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 14:18 (UTC)
kiaa: (soundkitteh)
From: [personal profile] kiaa
Now wouldn't that be amusing?

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 14:19 (UTC)
mahnmut: (Albert thinks ur funny.)
From: [personal profile] mahnmut
And lots of boiled leather!

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 14:40 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
I suspect Tyrwin Putin will be the last man standing. He hasn't a Tyrion to goad beyond the point of sanity, and I just think that he hasn't the same family-based structural weakness. He may have other weaknesses, of course, but aside from rumours of his period as attache in Berlin, he seems pretty fireproof.

I think it will take a heart-attack or stroke to topple him. And at a best guess he's got the finest medics known to man too.

Worst guess he'll outlive us all and someone will find a way to download his mindstate in to some VR preservation thingy and he'll be with us for all time.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 18:44 (UTC)
asthfghl: (Гацо Бацов от ФК Бацова Маала)
From: [personal profile] asthfghl
Family weakness: his circle of oligarchs. Heart attack, well that could be arranged (Novichok, anyone?) Let's not overestimate his invincibility.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 20:19 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
You'd be a very mad Russian to want to remove him - persuade him to change his ways maybe, but to actively want, or produce a political void in the Kremlin... I can't opt for massive destabilisation as a good alternative.

Regime change is always a tricky thing. Get rid of Saddam, succeed and get a lot of chaos; try to get rid of Assad, fail and chaos ensues. I'm not that into revolution in principle; I prefer the idea of evolution. And people's opinions and ideas can evolve at any age or point in their lives if they feel a need to do so.

I'm rather convinced the only thing that will change Uncle Vlad in any way is to appeal to his intellect - he is, after all, a really bright chap. He doesn't deny climate change, he's not a creationist... etc & etc. He has discipline and foresight, and unless he has the mindset and warped evil of a Ramsay Bolton he's got to want better for himself and Russia. Of course, if he is Ramsay Bolton (I checked the spelling) we are all a trifle exposed. Mind you, a bit more climate change and the Steppes become the greatest arable land on the planet. Maybe you don't have to be Ramsay - you can just sit back and let the US's climate-change denial turn Russia into the wealthiest farmlands in the remaining habitable world.

So many possibilities; and all he has to do is ensure mendacious, stupid, and myopic people are more popular than experts, informed folk, and tellers of truth to power. And Uncle Vlad can count on the support of the likes of Murdoch etc because he's just agreeing with their agenda.

We do it to ourselves. And that's what really hurts.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 07:39 (UTC)
asthfghl: (Ауди А6 за шес' хиляди марки. Проблемче?)
From: [personal profile] asthfghl
Isn't "a very mad Russian" the very definition of Russianness?

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 08:31 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
That's way too much of a stereotype for my liking. And en masse the Russians seem less mad than the UK or US electorate, looking at a results based diagnosis.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 08:37 (UTC)
asthfghl: (Ауди А6 за шес' хиляди марки. Проблемче?)
From: [personal profile] asthfghl
Don't know about the electorate, but the regular Russians that I have daily dealings with, seem pretty much spot-on with this stereotype.
Edited Date: 24/8/18 08:38 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 08:49 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
I guess that can be pretty complicated. Actual mad folk are pretty draining as well as frustratingly irritating.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 08:54 (UTC)
asthfghl: (Ауди А6 за шес' хиляди марки. Проблемче?)
From: [personal profile] asthfghl
They could be, yes. I see it in the way it affects some of my colleagues. Thankfully, I've got extraordinary patience when it comes to dealing with yelling, obnoxious people.
Edited Date: 24/8/18 08:55 (UTC)

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 19:39 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
You're a better man than I am, to quote the poet.

With me it's up to a point. Then I just yell back.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 20:51 (UTC)
asthfghl: (Ауди А6 за шес' хиляди марки. Проблемче?)
From: [personal profile] asthfghl
At some point I start to laugh back at 'em. Call it a self-preservation reflex.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 20:53 (UTC)
fridi: (Default)
From: [personal profile] fridi
Russians can get very annoying, yes. They're like teddy bears when you use the right approach, though.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 20:53 (UTC)
asthfghl: (Ауди А6 за шес' хиляди марки. Проблемче?)
From: [personal profile] asthfghl
Sure: As long as you say Yes Sir.

(no subject)

Date: 24/8/18 20:54 (UTC)
fridi: (Default)
From: [personal profile] fridi
Nah, I mean more like something along the line of getting under their skin, using the Broad Slavic Soul, etc. People do like some respect and personal attention.

(no subject)

Date: 25/8/18 07:50 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
Maybe we should all try to remember this as sage advice; what constitutes courtesy for other cultures is always broader than an individual's apperception of good manners.

Appeal to the Russian's soul, the American's frontier spirit, the British notion of fairness etc & etc and you will find a better reception for your point. But yet again we descend into stereotypes, even if positive ones.

Maybe positive stereotypes are OK? Negative ones certainly aren't IMHO. If positive stereotypes are more like ideals which we would like to achieve, both collectively and individually, then maybe they are a good thing for our various cultures. But negative stereotypes are definitely the breeding ground for the worst of our prejudices, rather than the best of our ideals.

Each case on it's merits.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 19:34 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
True. Mea Culpa. I do this sometimes, alas. The worst was with Meghan/Megan. It's why I can't copy edit my own work. I just read-through thinking I'm seeing what is written - maybe because we "read" whole words at a time. When it's pointed out to me, if I can, I will correct it.

Def guilty as charged. I hope I haven't caused Tywin offence. With Lady Sussex it may be more embarrassing. I shall have to try to avoid going out in public for a bit.

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 19:58 (UTC)
abomvubuso: (LOL)
From: [personal profile] abomvubuso
No venison stew for you for today, squire! Return to the kennels, and await further orders!

(no subject)

Date: 23/8/18 20:34 (UTC)
johnny9fingers: (Default)
From: [personal profile] johnny9fingers
Ah, but I live in the attic eyrie amongst my ravens and books; and the steps downwards are bad for my knees. :)

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