[identity profile] ddstory.livejournal.com posting in [community profile] talkpolitics

Back to that refugee/immigration topic from the other day. The fact that most of Europe doesn't seem to care that its peripheral countries are struggling to cope with the ever increasing refugee and immigration pressure, is far from being the only problem here. Another problem is the way the relevant funds for tackling the problem are being distributed. According to EC data, since the plan was being prepared at the end of last year, data from the preceding period (2011-2013) was being used, when the refugee flows were quite different from what they are now.

This was the reason that countries like Hungary and Bulgaria remained way behind in terms of funding, while the refugee pressure on their borders has increased immensely for the last few months. In other words, there's a delay that makes these measures totally inadequate.


Another problem with the new plan is that the management of the bulk of these funds remains in the hands of the member states, while the "community instruments" remain limited. The EU has printed lots of requirements and standards on paper, but when it comes to their actual implementation, things start looking rather differently. For example the wall construction: the EU was clear about its position against blocking access. But now that these walls are becoming reality, Europe has given up trying to oppose them. The borders are practically getting closed already. The lack of a common strategy and independent oversight on those programs, and the lack of a ceiling for the funds that the EU could allocate for those issues, is leaving separate countries with no other option but to do whatever they want with the money. All in all, chaos and discord.

Still, the European Commission did put some issues on the agenda, like the overpopulation of the refugee camps, and it has vowed to start relocating people from there. And this used to be a taboo topic until a few years ago - so there is some progress, albeit very slow. The same is valid for the controversial Dublin Regulation on the reviewing of refugee status applications. It stipulates that the refugees could be returned to the country (EU member) where they first came through (more precisely: where they first issued an application), which practically means pushing those who've somehow reached the wealthier European core back into the poorer periphery, and forcing the latter to take all the burden. Granted, this probably wouldn't deter most of those people from making new subsequent attempts to get into the core, but in any case, the burden remains with the periphery.


The walls along the periphery, and the tightened border control between the outer EU members (Greece) and the "outside world" (Turkey) have led to the opening of an alternative corridor, the so called Corridor #10. I'm talking of the West Balkans. One of the problems of that region is that six countries are clustered together into the same category, no matter if the conditions that they provide for refugees and the rules that they apply are in accordance with the EU norms. And since those refugees are passing through a region with serious problems, Europe is finding itself in an even more complicated situation: the mixing of economic with political refugees.

Along with the thousands of people seeking refuge from wars and persecution, the Balkan route is hosting hundreds of thousands of Kosovars. For the first five months of this year alone, 100 thousand people have entered the Schengen space from Kosovo. The only thing they care about is getting the luxury of spending three months in a country like Germany, Britain or Sweden, where they work hard before they get deported eventually. Although they're driven by economic motivations, they do get into the refugee stats. The Kosovars know there's no way to apply for refugee status, but that doesn't stop them from getting to Germany in winter, trying to work some job for a while, save some money, and then make ends meet somehow while back in Kosovo. You can imagine what someone who spends many months in a row without doing anything in a highly volatile environment could come up with - indeed, Kosovo has turned into a hub of organized crime, and a nest of fundamentalist extremism - and this, just a few hundred kilometers away from what's considered the "European core".

This duality of the reasons, motivations and goals of these people for entering the Schengen area, is giving more ammo to populists all across the continent. Politicians and parties like Marine Le Pen, Nigel Farage, the Golden Dawn in Greece and Jobbik in Hungary, are deliberately putting all migrants in the same pot: refugees, economic immigrants alike... all for the purposes of divisive nationalist rhetoric.

In the meantime, the stats tends to refute the notion that the bulk of those people looking for refuge are economic freeloaders who are trying to take advantage of the increased migration flow. More likely, this is about the increasingly complicated distinction between who has the right of protection in Europe and who doesn't. In this respect, there are two main (and roughly equal in size) groups of migrants. First, those from Iraq, Iran and Afghanistan, who enter Europe through Turkey, fleeing war and instability. Second, those coming from Africa (under pressure from Boko Haram in Nigeria, Al Qaeda in Mali, and Al Shabab in South Sudan). This leads to an increase in the number of people who are really looking for protection.


On the one hand, most estimates point to the fact that for the next 35 years, the EU will be needing between 20 and 35 million guest workers in order to sustain its economic growth. On the other hand, the relevant simple integration reforms that could facilitate the issue of Blue Cards for qualified workers, and the synchronization of the diploma regimes with third countries, are practically non-existent.

In the meantime though, there's no shortage of funds for deportation efforts and border control, which both cost billions, and lead to no real long-term relief of the situation. And sadly, nearly every discussion on the matter sooner or later boils down to identity debates of the "they're too different from us" sort. And, while Europe keeps bumping its head against the wall inside this vicious circle, the siege of Fortress Europe will be getting ever harder to cope with. And Frau Merkel won't be the last politician to be bringing immigrants to tears.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 14:47 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
These are very good posts. Whenever I see those maps of immigration roots and troubled borders, I can't help thinking about maps like this:

Image (http://s265.photobucket.com/user/policraticus/media/map10bar.jpg.html)

History doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 14:58 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] htpcl.livejournal.com
Those damned Christian barbarians! Oh wait...

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 15:19 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
Actually, the Goths had been Arian Christians for a hundred years or so when Alaric sacked Rome.

::shrugs::

People flow like water to safety, security, opportunity and benefits. It is true in the US Southwest, it is true in South Europe.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 20:00 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
And the Hellenized portion of the Empire kept on trucking for centuries and even regained major portions of the Western Empire. So your point doesn't really hold water since the East was also where all the money and finances and high culture of the broader classical Empire was concerned. While the region that established it was the West, the West was an ass-backwards land of savages who were good at killing in carload lots by comparison to the East.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 20:34 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
It is all a matter of degree. The East's comparative strength does not mean that life inside the West wasn't still much better than life outside the West. The barbarians went where they could find relative safety and security and comparative opportunity, not absolute safety, etc. Things might not have been as organized and efficient in Gaul or Spain when compared to Anatolia or Greece, but they were a still much better than the alternative.

(no subject)

Date: 5/8/15 21:43 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
Not really, when we start looking at the two, barbarians were Emperors in the East but didn't overthrow the state due to the state's addiction to bleeding itself to death in civil wars from overmighty generals (basic rule of thumb, armies are state-destroying money traps). The Eastern Empire and Caliphate were much more prosperous and livable even for peasants than Frankish Europe, it's a crude truth. If they'd been more prosperous and sanitary, Islam would have overrun them.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 19:59 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
As I recall, the greatest menace to Rome wasn't the immigrants but a military that ran unchecked and destroyed the Western state in perpetual civil war. The Eastern Empire survived for centuries and received its death blows from the converted barbarians who destroyed the West in the 1204 Crusade. So the point starts disintegrating when we analyze it as far as what did or did not happen with the disintegration of the Roman Empire. Modern states haven't fallen from migration with the singular exception of Mobutu's Zaire.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 20:28 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
Who said anything about menace? Who said anything about disintegration? The maps are similar because the situations are eerily similar. Large groups of people, menaced by war, pestilence and famine, are attempting to find opportunity and security in a very successful and prosperous civilization. That was true of the Franks and the Goths, it is true of the Libyans, Syrians etc. As long as people are people things like this are going to happen. Europe has to change, just like the US had to change at the turn of the century. Just how much is an open question.

What destroyed the Western Empire, as an institution, was the Eastern Empire. We see Roman customs and institutions chugging along predictably under the "barbarians" right up until Justinian sends Bellasarius on his campaign to bring Rome back into union with Byzantium. After that? Well, things get a little dark...

(no subject)

Date: 5/8/15 21:45 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
You can invent any number of spurious similarities by pointing out to things that aren't relevant. The Rome that fell in the West was killed by the forcible imposition of a new religion heavily reliant on urban centers that didn't exist and the perennial addiction of generals to trying to be the Emperor if they had a large enough following. The Western Empire was dead before Rome was officially sacked and certainly well before Nepos and Romulus Augustulus. There is no Theodosius analogue here, there is no Christianity imposed by fire and sword at the Milvian Bridge and the Frigidus. Or, alternately, one could argue that Christianity was the Islamism of its own day and the difference here was that people who ruled the states of the time converted and brainwashed their subjects to agree with them.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 16:05 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dreamville-bg.livejournal.com
Good post, just like the first part. Just one thing. I have often wondered where these refugees get the money for paying the traffickers. I mean, this "service" costs thousands of dollars. And we are supposedly talking about poor people, barely able to make ends meet. Something does not quite click into place here. Hell, I, myself, being a EU citizen, would hardly be able to spare so much money within a decade, let alone people from a war-torn country in the Middle East or Africa.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 19:31 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] policraticus.livejournal.com
I can't speak directly about European illegal immigration, but a lot of Mexican immigrants to the US are fronted the money by criminals and have to pay off the debt out of their US earnings, with interest, of course. Some Asian immigrants indenture themselves, working essentially as slave labor for a set number of years.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 19:42 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] dreamville-bg.livejournal.com
This reminds me that a few days ago a stats came up, showing that our compatriots working abroad as guest workers are sending more money home than the entire sum of all foreign investments in our country.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 16:08 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] mahnmut.livejournal.com
Commendation granted for both parts of the article.

(no subject)

Date: 29/7/15 19:57 (UTC)
From: [identity profile] underlankers.livejournal.com
If we judge by Germany's handling of its own Gastarbeiter, the EU will handle it by burying its head in the sand and reviving the Voelkish definition that to be properly citizens of the individual EU states you have to be ethnic members of those states. Then the people who've lived there for several generations and are assimilated will wonder like Europe's Jews why the homeland of supposed tolerance keeps tripping over its own dick every time it has to actually implement that tolerance in practice (as opposed to America which has long made pious rhetoric and then done pogroms and lynchings shamelessly).

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