Talk politics.

I wanted to just make an open-thread on the off-year elections tomorrow, but since that isn't really a community thing....

So tomorrow, at least from my reckoning being here in Japan, will have 3 major off-year elections: the gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, and the special election in NY-23 Congressional district. The Republicans hope to pin successes here on rising anti-Obama sentiment and use them as a watermark, to say "We're back, baby!" but I think that anything of the sort would be premature.

In Virginia, if Deeds (D) loses and McDonnell (R) wins, I think we can just chalk that up to the Virginians tendency to elect opposition governors the year after a president is elected. It would also be a sign of frustration with Obama, but I wouldn't label that the majority reason.

In New Jersey, if incumbent Corzine (D) loses to Christie (R), I think that will have absolutely nothing to do with national politics, despite the national Democratic Party seemingly pulling out all the stops to save the governorship. Instead, it will have everything to do voters fed up with Corzine's bumbling, ineffectual governing and the decrepit state of the state economy (not to mention rampant corruption.) If Corzine does win, well, I'm not exactly sure what will be the cause of that. Certainly independent candidate Chris Daggett will play a role, an unfortunate side affect of the obsolete and horribly twisted plurality vote system, in siphoning votes away from Christie, but otherwise I expect voters to toss Corzine.

The special election in NY-23 is the most interesting. First, its in my backyard; I'm actually in NY-24, so NY-23 is very close to me. Basically, its the most northern part of the state, the boonies, so to speak, but it does have the large Fort Drum, which houses the US Army's 10th Mountain Division. (I heard that's why the previous guy, McHugh, was tapped to be the Secretary of the Army. Dumb reason if you ask me...) It was a three-way race between Republican Scozzafava, Democrat Owens, and third-party, New York Conservative Party candidate Hoffman, but Scozzafava dropped out and endorsed Owens (!) after she was thrashed in the polls by Hoffman, who is now in a dead heat with the Democrat. It doesn't mean all that much if Hoffman is elected when it comes to the House--he'll just caucus with Republicans--but it will show that the Republican party, which has backed Hoffman, is leaning more towards catering the conservative extreme rather than more moderate members. This, I feel, is political suicide: the people who Hoffman represent are a much smaller portion of the electorate than the NRC realizes, and their view is rapidly becoming antiquated. I think it would also be interesting for a third-party member in the House, but that's just a personal view.

So...just have an open thread on the topic, with my thoughts to provide a prompt. I don't really want to debate ideology here, I just want to talk elections.