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talkpoliticsWhat is that thing that looks like ISIL, quacks like ISIL, but is not ISIL? Well, you may have already guessed it, that is Boko Haram. They have proclaimed their own Caliphate too, but in the north-eastern parts of Nigeria. They also shock with their cruelty, which is escalating every next year. Although Nigeria is Africa's biggest economy and one of the world's top oil producers, the weak corrupted government has been unable to stop the terrorist group. And, unless the broken political system is changed, the Nigerian jihadists will keep being on the rise, gradually turning their bloody campaign into a regional conflict.
Ever since Boko Haram launched their offensive in 2009, more than 16 thousand people have been killed, and a million have been driven off their homes. The group uses a myriad of tactics, from bombings to kidnapping to arson, affecting both Christian and Muslim communities. We all know of the case where 276 schoolgrirls were kidnapped from Shibok. Some managed to escape, others died, and others still were sold into slavery, or forcefully married to jihadist husbands. Turns out, that is not the worst of what these extremists are capable of.
Last month they committed massacres in Baga, some estimates pointing to over 2000 victims (it is still impossible to confirm the exact number through independent sources). More terrorist attacks followed, some committed by women and children. All of this was happening at a time when the world was fixated on the deadly attacks in Paris, and the news of the violence in Nigeria went largely unnoticed by the public. But the bigger problem is that even the Nigerian authorities responded with a huge delay to this tragedy, which increased the criticism about inadequacy, incompetence and a lack of empathy to the victims. The president Goodluck Jonathan hadn't visited the affected region for almost two years, and due to his inability to tackle the threat, there have been constant calls for his resignation. Instead, in all his arrogance he has now decided to run for re-election next week. What's more, there are still many questions about the upcoming election: how is it going to proceed, especially in the north-eastern regions where many voters will be incapable of going to the ballots due to all the violence.
The president is looking for excuses in the fact that Boko Haram is part of a global problem, but the fact is, until very recently he used to be opposed to an international military intervention. In 2013 he declared martial law in the north-eastern regions of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, which temporarily halted the advance of the terrorists. But the attacks became ever more cruel and intensive, as is visible from satellite images of Baga, showing total devastation. Amnesty International confirms that the news of hundreds and even thousands of victims are true, and that has been Boko Haram's deadliest attack yet. Quite predictably, the Nigerian authorities are denying those numbers and claiming that the victims are "only" 150.
A couple of weeks ago, Amnesty revealed that the military had been warned of the impending attack on Baga, but did nothing to protect the civilian population. They cited an unnamed top military official who explained that the Islamists had told the locals of the attack. That NGO has been working with their extensive network of contacts in north-eastern Nigeria, among them human rights watchers, journalists, lawyers, local officials and military personnel. They have spoken with witnesses who had received and transmitted warnings of a planned offensive. The evidence clearly shows that last November and December, a number of military commanders in Baga were regularly informed of the direct threat. The government should have taken measuers to protect the civilians, including through informing them of the risks and hazards, and evacuating them, or providing transportation to those who wanted to move away. But the local military never did anything of the sort.
In the meantime, Boko Haram's campaign is growing, and the Islamists are exporting more jihad, now beyond the Nigerian borders, threatening a number of neighbouring countries with destabilisation. Among them is Cameroon, where last year the group killed at least 70 people in a border town. This lead to Chad's decision to send troops and planes into Nigeria. A few days prior to that the African Union supported a plan for the formation of regional armed forces of 7500 troops, which would counter Boko Haram, as they acknowledged that the Islamist threat requierd "a collective and resolute response". Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger will all be contributing with troops. And though such a move is encouraging to an extent, the joint efforts would be far from efficient if Nigeria doesn't do anything to address its own problems. After all, it is not a country lacking resources and capacity, so in this case the problem is rather a lack of political will for dealing with the threat and addressing the root causes for its manifestation. The military complains that it is poorly equipped and lacking the firepower of its rival. Having in mind that Nigeria annually spends 6 billion dollars for defense and security, the suspicions of corruption on all levels of the system are more than warranted.
The links between intelligence, national security services and the military are poorly coordinated, which explains why Boko Haram always manages to be a step ahead. In the cases when entire villages had been warned of the attacks, for some reason the military never managed to reach there. There are also allegations that there are people within the ranks of the military who, instead of fighting, had instantly abandoned their positions because they are not professional soldiers, but had joined the army just in search of a stable job. In many cases, the horrified locals preferred not to turn to the security forces whenever they had important information, because the military itself is being accused of atrocities against the population. Besides, Boko Haram has a clearly defined ethnic identity, which is why they have been so successful in that part of the country - because they not only manage to merge into the background, they are part of the background. And let's not forget that they are well funded from both within and outside the country.
Nigeria is a divided country. While the predominantly Christian south remains largely undisturbed by all the violence, and is enjoying an economic boom of some sorts, the mainly Muslim north-east remains poor and underdeveloped. This discrepancy, coupled with the fact that we are speaking of a resource-based economy where the oil revenue is being distributed extremely unevently, are among the reasons for the huge security problem. And, while the gap between the regions and the political inefficiency are addressed in a meaningful way, Islamic radicalisation will only be further deepening.
Ever since Boko Haram launched their offensive in 2009, more than 16 thousand people have been killed, and a million have been driven off their homes. The group uses a myriad of tactics, from bombings to kidnapping to arson, affecting both Christian and Muslim communities. We all know of the case where 276 schoolgrirls were kidnapped from Shibok. Some managed to escape, others died, and others still were sold into slavery, or forcefully married to jihadist husbands. Turns out, that is not the worst of what these extremists are capable of.
Last month they committed massacres in Baga, some estimates pointing to over 2000 victims (it is still impossible to confirm the exact number through independent sources). More terrorist attacks followed, some committed by women and children. All of this was happening at a time when the world was fixated on the deadly attacks in Paris, and the news of the violence in Nigeria went largely unnoticed by the public. But the bigger problem is that even the Nigerian authorities responded with a huge delay to this tragedy, which increased the criticism about inadequacy, incompetence and a lack of empathy to the victims. The president Goodluck Jonathan hadn't visited the affected region for almost two years, and due to his inability to tackle the threat, there have been constant calls for his resignation. Instead, in all his arrogance he has now decided to run for re-election next week. What's more, there are still many questions about the upcoming election: how is it going to proceed, especially in the north-eastern regions where many voters will be incapable of going to the ballots due to all the violence.
The president is looking for excuses in the fact that Boko Haram is part of a global problem, but the fact is, until very recently he used to be opposed to an international military intervention. In 2013 he declared martial law in the north-eastern regions of Borno, Yobe and Adamawa, which temporarily halted the advance of the terrorists. But the attacks became ever more cruel and intensive, as is visible from satellite images of Baga, showing total devastation. Amnesty International confirms that the news of hundreds and even thousands of victims are true, and that has been Boko Haram's deadliest attack yet. Quite predictably, the Nigerian authorities are denying those numbers and claiming that the victims are "only" 150.
A couple of weeks ago, Amnesty revealed that the military had been warned of the impending attack on Baga, but did nothing to protect the civilian population. They cited an unnamed top military official who explained that the Islamists had told the locals of the attack. That NGO has been working with their extensive network of contacts in north-eastern Nigeria, among them human rights watchers, journalists, lawyers, local officials and military personnel. They have spoken with witnesses who had received and transmitted warnings of a planned offensive. The evidence clearly shows that last November and December, a number of military commanders in Baga were regularly informed of the direct threat. The government should have taken measuers to protect the civilians, including through informing them of the risks and hazards, and evacuating them, or providing transportation to those who wanted to move away. But the local military never did anything of the sort.
In the meantime, Boko Haram's campaign is growing, and the Islamists are exporting more jihad, now beyond the Nigerian borders, threatening a number of neighbouring countries with destabilisation. Among them is Cameroon, where last year the group killed at least 70 people in a border town. This lead to Chad's decision to send troops and planes into Nigeria. A few days prior to that the African Union supported a plan for the formation of regional armed forces of 7500 troops, which would counter Boko Haram, as they acknowledged that the Islamist threat requierd "a collective and resolute response". Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger will all be contributing with troops. And though such a move is encouraging to an extent, the joint efforts would be far from efficient if Nigeria doesn't do anything to address its own problems. After all, it is not a country lacking resources and capacity, so in this case the problem is rather a lack of political will for dealing with the threat and addressing the root causes for its manifestation. The military complains that it is poorly equipped and lacking the firepower of its rival. Having in mind that Nigeria annually spends 6 billion dollars for defense and security, the suspicions of corruption on all levels of the system are more than warranted.
The links between intelligence, national security services and the military are poorly coordinated, which explains why Boko Haram always manages to be a step ahead. In the cases when entire villages had been warned of the attacks, for some reason the military never managed to reach there. There are also allegations that there are people within the ranks of the military who, instead of fighting, had instantly abandoned their positions because they are not professional soldiers, but had joined the army just in search of a stable job. In many cases, the horrified locals preferred not to turn to the security forces whenever they had important information, because the military itself is being accused of atrocities against the population. Besides, Boko Haram has a clearly defined ethnic identity, which is why they have been so successful in that part of the country - because they not only manage to merge into the background, they are part of the background. And let's not forget that they are well funded from both within and outside the country.
Nigeria is a divided country. While the predominantly Christian south remains largely undisturbed by all the violence, and is enjoying an economic boom of some sorts, the mainly Muslim north-east remains poor and underdeveloped. This discrepancy, coupled with the fact that we are speaking of a resource-based economy where the oil revenue is being distributed extremely unevently, are among the reasons for the huge security problem. And, while the gap between the regions and the political inefficiency are addressed in a meaningful way, Islamic radicalisation will only be further deepening.
